The long trek to the start of the regular season begins this week with training camps opening up on time in Florida and Arizona -- although with many of the same COVID-19 protocols in place as during the 2020 season.
For now, Opening Day on April 1 is on schedule -- the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers start up at the Colorado Rockies -- and the 108-page operations manual for 2021 includes shorter spring training games, mandatory wearing of contact-tracing devices, fines for not wearing masks properly and bans on indoor dining and going to movie theaters.
Fans will be allowed to attend spring training games in limited numbers; Florida teams will limit cross-state travel for games; and players will face a five-day quarantine when first reporting to camp. Otherwise, it's all systems normal -- as normal as they can be, anyway.
As players head to spring training, let's take a run around the majors to see the biggest spring training story to watch for each team and some key players to keep an eye on.
It was a disastrous 60 games for Arizona in 2020, and the rotation that was supposed to be the team's strength finished with a 5.04 ERA. Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver went a combined 2-13 with a 6.53 ERA. With Merrill Kelly attempting to come back from thoracic outlet surgery in September, it's imperative those two back up Zac Gallen at the top of the rotation.
Bumgarner is the one to watch in camp: His fastball velocity declined from 91.4 mph to 88.4 mph in 2020, and he ranked at the bottom or near the bottom in Statcast measures such as barrel rate (1%), expected batting average (3%) and expected ERA (2%). If his velocity is still down late in camp, that's a huge red flag.
While the Braves have a couple of on-field matters to sort out -- How does Mike Soroka look coming back from his Achilles injury? Who replaces Mark Melancon as closer? -- the big issue will be signing Freddie Freeman to a long-term extension.
The 2020 National League MVP is a free agent after the 2021 season, and while it's difficult to envision him playing for another team, he is going to cost a lot more than the $65 million the Braves just spent to re-sign Marcell Ozuna. Under Liberty Media ownership, the Braves have refrained from giving out megadeals to veteran players, and Freeman will be entering his age-32 season in 2022.
One of the feel-good stories of spring training will be Trey Mancini's return after missing last season while fighting off stage 3 colon cancer. Voted team MVP in 2019 after hitting .291/.364/.535 with 34 home runs, he should get his regular duties back at first base or designated hitter.
If he does perform at his 2019 level in the regular season, it will be interesting to see if he then becomes trade bait at the deadline as the Orioles continue their rebuild.
The return of Alex Cora as manager is an important story, and his primary task will be fixing the rotation. Without Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez in 2020, the Boston rotation churned through 16 starting pitchers in just 60 games. Perhaps not surprisingly, Boston allowed the highest OBP and second-highest slugging percentage.
Sale will still be on the mend from Tommy John surgery, but Rodriguez has said he is 100 percent after battling coronavirus-related myocarditis. Keep an eye on rookie Tanner Houck, who looked great in three September starts (17 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 21 SO).
I'm not sure if this will necessarily manifest itself in spring training, but the Cubs have to figure out how to get their swagger back. Yes, they won the division in 2020, but that was despite lackluster offensive numbers from Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez.
The computer projections are forecasting better results in 2021 despite their offseason moves; Pecota has the Cubs with the third-best offense in the NL. Those three are all pending free agents, so in their possible final run together, will they bounce back to past glory? Spring might give some early indications of how the season might go.
Everyone is excited to see Michael Kopech, the one-time top prospect with the 100 mph fastball whom we last saw in the majors in 2018. It will be interesting to see if the White Sox use 2021 No. 1 draft pick Garrett Crochet as a reliever -- where he could make an immediate impact in the big leagues -- or develop him as a starter in the minors. Is first baseman Andrew Vaughn ready to make a leap to the majors early in the season?
But those are all side issues to one of the biggest stories across the entire sport: Is 76-year-old Tony La Russa the right manager to guide this playoff contender to the World Series?
The Reds went all-in for 2020, spending more in free agency than they had over the previous decade. But the offense stumbled through the 60-game season (hitting .212 and finishing last in the NL in runs), and then the Braves shut them out in both playoff games. Now Trevor Bauer is gone, and ownership is back to its penny-pinching ways.
Meanwhile, three major questions for camp: (1) Will Sean Doolittle get first crack as closer over Amir Garrett? (2) Will Kyle Holder, the Rule 5 draft selection acquired from the Phillies, win the shortstop job or will the Reds look to make a trade? (3) Is this the year Nick Senzel stays healthy and breaks out?
Once you get past the missing faces of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana and Carlos Carrasco, the focus will turn to young players with something to prove. Was Zach Plesac's off-the-charts 2020 an indicator of a full-season breakout? Is Triston McKenzie the next rotation star? Can Oscar Mercado (.128 in 2020) run with the center-field job? Will Bobby Bradley or Jake Bauers win the first-base job? If Andres Gimenez is the starting shortstop, what do you do with Amed Rosario?
We'll get some early signs from these players in camp and perhaps evidence that Cleveland could surprise in the American League Central.
For the first time since 2012, the Rockies will have a regular third baseman not named Nolan Arenado. (Chris Nelson was the third baseman before Arenado, in case you're curious.) It appears Ryan McMahon will have the job in 2021. He came up through the minors as a third baseman, but he has started just 23 games there in the majors. The bigger issue is McMahon hasn't hit, posting a career OPS+ of 82 in nearly 1,000 plate appearances.
Josh Fuentes will compete with minor league signings C.J. Cron and Greg Bird at first base, and in 159 career PAs in the majors Fuentes has 49 strikeouts and three walks. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers is still trying to establish himself in the majors and is coming off a shoulder injury. Center field is up for grabs between Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard and perhaps Garrett Hampson. All that leads to the team's biggest spring question: Will Trevor Story still be on the roster on Opening Day?
How do the young starters look? Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal rank 20th, 23rd and 53rd on Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects. Mize and Skubal retain their rookie status after jumping in 2020 from Double-A to the majors, where they were treated rudely by opposing hitters, combining for a 6.27 ERA over 14 starts with 16 home runs in 60⅓ innings.
Skubal spent time at Driveline Baseball in the offseason honing his changeup, while former No. 1 pick Mize will appreciate the analytical mindset new pitching coach Chris Fetter (hired from the University of Michigan) brings to the job. Fetter also will be tasked with fixing Matthew Boyd, who allowed 15 home runs in 60⅓ innings in 2020. It all makes for a potentially intriguing rotation (Spencer Turnbull might end up the best of them, at least in 2021) for new skipper AJ Hinch, whose first Houston team went 86-76 and made the playoffs. That's going not to happen with Detroit in 2021, but with the young starters and 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, a foundation is getting built.
The Astros could still use a center fielder after George Springer left via free agency. But the big question is how 2019 rookie of the year Yordan Alvarez looks after playing just two games in 2020 before undergoing surgery for a torn patellar tendon in his right knee. After hitting .313/.412/.655 in 87 games as a rookie, he has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the game, if healthy.
Keep an eye on Jose Altuve as well. As bad as he was in 2020, he is one season removed from hitting .298 with 31 home runs. His strikeout and walk rates slid in the wrong direction in 2020, and those are indicators we can see even in murky spring training stats.
There is no principal overarching story here, but this rotation is shaping up as a fun one to watch, with more interesting arms in the minors on the way. Brad Keller now has a 3.50 career ERA, as he makes his four-seamer/sinker/slider arsenal work despite generating few whiffs. Brady Singer and Kris Bubic debuted in 2020.
Next in line: Asa Lacy, the fourth overall pick in 2020 out of Texas A&M and a polished lefty who should move very quickly; Daniel Lynch, another college lefty; and Jackson Kowar, a teammate of Singer's at Florida who could be a candidate to move to the bullpen.
The Angels have made modest additions throughout the roster -- closer Raisel Iglesias, shortstop Jose Iglesias, starters Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, outfielder Dexter Fowler and catcher Kurt Suzuki -- leaving some to wonder if there is still one more move to make in the rotation.
They are still counting on Shohei Ohtani as one of the players in the rotation, but he couldn't throw strikes last season in his return from Tommy John surgery. Frankly, I'd consider just telling Ohtani to DH and then bring in another starter -- perhaps Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi.
With that World Series championship finally in hand, it will be interesting to see what kind of energy the Dodgers bring to spring training and the start of the regular season. Note that recent champs Boston and Washington both started slow and never recovered in their title defenses.
I suspect that won't be an issue with the Dodgers, who will want to do it over a full 162-game season; plus, they have the Padres breathing down their necks to keep them motivated. That's another reason the Trevor Bauer signing makes a lot of sense: He'll bring a certain edge to the team -- in a good way, I think, pushing the others pitchers on the staff.
Are the kids ready to contribute? In just a couple of seasons, the Marlins have turned their farm system around from one of the worst in the game to one of the best. (Although, let's be fair: It cost them some good big league talent along the way.) They had six players on McDaniel's top 100 prospects list, led by Sixto Sanchez, who came over in the J.T. Realmuto trade and looked like a potential ace during his six starts in the majors (and a great one to beat the Cubs in the playoffs).
Infielder Jazz Chisholm, acquired for Zac Gallen, also reached the majors, although he might be ticketed for Triple-A to start 2021. Also keep an eye on pitcher Max Meyer and outfielder JJ Bleday, the team's past two first-round picks who should move quickly as college players.
The Brewers will welcome back Lorenzo Cain, who opted out of 2020 after playing five games, and welcome in new second baseman Kolten Wong. The bottom line here: much better defense. Cain will be 35 years old, by which time most center fielders have moved off the position, but his metrics were outstanding in 2019 (plus-22 defensive runs saved).
Wong is a Gold Glove Award winner and a huge upgrade over Keston Hiura, who moves to first base. Hiura will have to learn the position, and he is short for a first baseman; but the other option there was Daniel Vogelbach, who isn't exactly Baryshnikov around the bag. Third base remains a position the Brewers might look to upgrade; for now, Luis Urias and Daniel Robertson will fight for playing time.
With the late signings of Nelson Cruz, J.A. Happ and Alex Colome, the Twins enter spring training pretty set and aiming for a third straight division title.
There are a few position battles to watch: Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer for the fifth starter; Ryan Jeffers and Mitch Garver behind the plate; rookie Alex Kirilloff, No. 22 on McDaniel's list, should beat out Jake Cave in left field.
With the signing of Andrelton Simmons pushing Jorge Polanco over to second base, Luis Arraez also will see time in the outfield as a super utility player. (Arraez didn't play there in 2020, but he did start 18 games in left field in 2019.)
Mets fans might be slightly disappointed that the team landed just one superstar in Francisco Lindor, instead of two from the Lindor/Trevor Bauer/J.T. Realmuto/George Springer pool. But the Mets have substantially improved their depth, and maybe there's room for one more addition to the starting rotation (or even a trade for Kris Bryant).
A couple of arms to watch: Marcus Stroman, who sat out last season, and Noah Syndergaard, who had Tommy John surgery in March. Syndergaard should be a midseason return, but spring will give us a better timetable.
This is all about the status of two new starting pitchers and the return of the team's former ace. Corey Kluber threw one inning for the Rangers in 2020 before missing the rest of the season with a tear in a shoulder muscle. Jameson Taillon last pitched 37 innings in 2019, missing all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery; likewise for Luis Severino, who went down in spring training of 2020.
Given that Kluber missed most of 2019 as well, these three have combined for just 86 innings over the past two seasons. Kluber and Taillon will be ready for Opening Day, while Severino is a midseason return. But there is fascinating upside here: In 2018, the three went a combined 53-25 with a 3.15 ERA.
The A's are coming off a division title and three straight playoff appearances, but they have a multitude of questions to appraise. Foremost is Matt Chapman's health after hip surgery in September. Chapman was third among position players in Baseball-Reference WAR over 2018-19 and sixth in FanGraphs WAR.
A.J. Puk didn't pitch in 2020 after shoulder soreness and season-ending surgery, although the A's hope he'll be ready for Opening Day. They have to replace closer Liam Hendriks, with Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken and Lou Trivino the top candidates. Elvis Andrus, acquired to replace Marcus Semien at shortstop, will have to show he still has the range to play the position.
The Phillies re-signed J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius and acquired Archie Bradley to be their ninth-inning reliever. So the primary questions for spring training are the same ones that dogged the team in 2020: center field, rotation depth and bullpen depth. Who takes the center-field job between Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn? (You do wonder if Jackie Bradley Jr. ends up here.)
They've brought in Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to battle Spencer Howard and Vince Velasquez for the final two rotation spots. Hard-throwing Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod are potential late-game options to set up Bradley and Hector Neris.
As you might expect on a team projected as the worst in the majors, the most interesting thing about this franchise is probably the development of the minor leaguers.
As far as big league camp, there are one or two openings at the back of the rotation. Cole Tucker and Anthony Alford will battle it out in center field. Kevin Newman or Erik Gonzalez could end up as the starting shortstop. The biggest key, however, at least if the Pirates are to be remotely interesting in 2021, is how Gregory Polanco (.153), Bryan Reynolds (.189) and Newman (.224) rebound after struggling in 2020.
Besides admiring how good Nolan Arenado will look in that classic Cardinals jersey, the team does have several pitchers coming back from injuries. Jordan Hicks will try to reclaim his closer role in returning from Tommy John surgery. He was 14-for-15 in save chances before going down in June 2019. Miles Mikolas ended up missing all of 2020 after surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm. Carlos Martinez struggled with a 9.90 ERA after a COVID-19 diagnosis and then an oblique strain. (And Dakota Hudson is already out for the season with Tommy John surgery.)
The Padres are good, they're exciting and they have the talent to push the Dodgers. Two pitchers to watch: (1) Dinelson Lamet, who was shut down in the playoffs due to a sore biceps. He previously has had Tommy John surgery, but general manager A.J. Preller recently said Lamet has passed all their tests and will be ready for spring training. (2) MacKenzie Gore, McDaniel's No. 13 prospect, who got passed up in favor of Luis Patino (now with Tampa Bay) and Ryan Weathers for a place on the postseason roster, in part because the Padres said his delivery got a little out of whack at the team's alternate site. McDaniel downgraded Gore a little bit from his 2020 ranking, so camp will tell us if he is back on track to make an impact at some point in 2021.
The Giants missed the playoffs in 2020, but they were compelling thanks to an offense that ranked third in the NL in runs, which was a big surprise since it was an old team that had finished 14th in runs in 2019. The changed dimensions at Oracle Park certainly played a role, but some of the individual performances were still shocking: Mike Yastrzemski was one of the best hitters in the league; Alex Dickerson slugged .576; Brandon Belt had a 1.015 OPS (!); and Donovan Solano has now hit .328 over the past two seasons.
None of that has anything to do with the story to watch here: the return of Buster Posey after he sat out 2020, in what could be his final season with the Giants.
Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert won't make the Opening Day roster, but with a strong spring and quick starts in Triple-A, both could reach the majors sooner rather than later. For all the hype with Kelenic -- he is a consensus top-five overall prospect -- keep in mind that he has played just 21 games above Class A, back in 2019. He did perform well at summer camp in 2020, according to reports, but there is no need to rush him to the big leagues without a little more time in the upper minors.
The Rays have to replace the traded Blake Snell and free-agent departure Charlie Morton (and Yonny Chirinos is out for the season), and they have a long list of candidates, which should make for an intriguing spring training.
Chris Archer is back after missing the season while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. The Rays gave him $6.5 million, so they must be confident in his health, but that's a difficult surgery to come back from as a pitcher. Brendan McKay's 2020 season ended with shoulder surgery. Is he healthy? Are youngsters Luis Patino or Shane McClanahan ready to take a rotation role? Does veteran Michael Wacha have anything left? Everyone assumes because it's the Rays all this will sort itself out, but there is no guarantee here.
After finishing with the majors' second-worst record in 2020, this roster doesn't exactly inspire much hope for 2021. There are a few names to watch, however.
Mike Foltynewicz, an All-Star with Atlanta in 2018, is trying to rediscover his fastball, which once sat 95 to 97 mph, but averaged 90 mph in his one start in 2020 (in which he got shelled and then designated for assignment). Kohei Arihara, a 28-year-old right-hander, is coming over from Japan, where his strikeout rate curiously plummeted in 2020. He throws in the low 90s and has the full arsenal of pitches -- sinker, changeup, splitter, slider, cutter and a slow curveball. Dane Dunning joined Texas as the primary player in the Lance Lynn trade. Jordan Lyles and Kolby Allard will try to regroup after posting ERAs over 7.00 in 2020 (despite the new, pitcher-friendly park).
I don't anticipate Marcus Semien's transition to second base being an issue, so spring training will be making sure some key pitchers hit the regular season running. Is Robbie Ray throwing enough strikes after walking 45 in 51⅔ innings in 2020? Is new closer Kirby Yates healthy after his elbow issues last year? Is Nate Pearson ready to build off his brief major league debut? More importantly, is the elbow tightness that sidelined Pearson for a month of any concern? Is Steven Matz ready to put his lost 2020 campaign (0-5, 9.68 ERA) behind him?
Maybe the most shocking nugget of the COVID-19 season is this one: The Nationals' rotation had a 5.38 ERA. The Orioles -- the Orioles! -- had a better ERA. Nationals starters allowed the highest batting average, the highest slugging percentage and the highest BABIP, and they dropped from fourth in the majors in strikeout rate to 21st.
Of course, a big reason was that Stephen Strasburg made just two starts before undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome in his right hand. Strasburg's health -- and his importance to the Nationals -- will make him one of the most watched players of spring training.
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