AL.com NFL Mock Draft 2: Trades, QBs and Alabama - AL.com

The NFL Draft is out of Roger Goodell’s basement and on the road to Cleveland, more like the three-day football extravaganzas of the past than the coronavirus pandemic-induced studio show of 2020.

NFL teams will select 259 players next week, and the AL.com Mock Draft forecasts how the first 32 picks might go. Unlike the first AL.com Mock Draft two weeks ago, which assigned picks based on the current draft order, the second look at the first round predicts seven trades in an attempt to inject some reality into something that’s speculation.

In the 2020 NFL Draft, LSU’s undefeated CFP national championship team of the 2019 season produced five first-round picks to set an SEC record. In the 2021 AL.com Mock Draft, Alabama’s undefeated CFP national championship team of the 2020 season has seven players in the first round, which would be one more than Miami (Fla.)’s record first-round production of 2004.

The first round of the NFL Draft is set for 7 p.m. CDT April 29, the second and third rounds start at 6 p.m. April 30 and the fourth through seventh rounds begin at 11 a.m. May 1. The draft will be televised by ABC, ESPN and NFL Network.

A look at the players who could be selected in the first round one week from today, including projected trades:

No. 1: Jacksonville Jaguars

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence: The Jaguars didn’t need a Tank for Trevor strategy. Jacksonville got 2021′s first pick by losing 15 games in row on merit. The Jaguars are counting on Lawrence and new coach Urban Meyer to spark a new era for a team that has been to the playoffs once in the past 13 seasons and has never reached the Super Bowl in its 26-year history.

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No. 2: New York Jets

BYU quarterback Zack Wilson: After the Jets traded quarterback Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers this offseason for three draft picks, New York general manager Joe Douglas called it a “fair assessment” when asked if the deal meant the team planned to pick a QB at No. 2. The Jets used the third selection in the 2018 NFL Draft to add Darnold. A new group of talent evaluators will try to do better at No. 2 this time around with the off-script talent of Wilson.

No. 3: San Francisco 49ers

Alabama quarterback Mac Jones: Are the 49ers really going to buck what seems like the entire NFL talent-evaluation system, give up all that draft capital to move from No. 12 to No. 3 and choose a quarterback other than Ohio State’s Justin Fields here? Why would they? San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan has reached the Super Bowl twice, both times with pocket-bound QBs – as the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator with Matt Ryan at quarterback and as the 49ers’ head coach with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Of the past 20 Super Bowls, 17 winners had quarterbacks who were not dual threats. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes were the only Super Bowl-winning QBs in that span who were particularly mobile, and Rodgers and Mahomes are more time-buying scramblers than up-the-field runners. And there’s a cautionary tale in Shanahan’s past. As Washington’s offensive coordinator, he helped Robert Griffin III rejuvenate the franchise in 2012. As a rookie, Griffin led Washington to the playoffs for the first time in five years as he threw for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns and ran for 815 yards and seven touchdowns. Washington gave up three first-round picks and a second-round choice to move up from No. 6 to No. 2 to draft Griffin. During Griffin’s rookie season, it looked well worth it, but he came out of 2012 with a torn ACL and meniscus. Washington went 5-15 with Griffin as their starting QB over the next two seasons, with Shanahan around for only the first of those because he lost his job after 2013. Unlike so much of the rest of the NFL, Shanahan isn’t looking for the next Lamar Jackson. He wants the next Tom Brady, who was the winning QB in the Super Bowl last season – again – as an accurate thrower, strong leader and quick information-processor. He wants Mac Jones.

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No. 4: Atlanta Falcons

Florida tight end Kyle Pitts: The previous time the Falcons made their first pick this early in a draft came in 2008, when Atlanta took Boston College QB Matt Ryan at No. 3. Ryan figures prominently in this pick. He’ll be the Falcons’ quarterback for at least the next two seasons because his dead-cap figure makes it prohibitive to release him before the 2023 season. Terry Fontenot, Atlanta’s first-year general manager, must determine if he wants to secure Ryan’s successor now with the hope that it’ll be another 13 years before the Falcons pick this low or get a player to help Ryan win again now, such as Pitts, LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase or Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell. A tight end has never been picked sooner than fifth.

No. 5: Cincinnati Bengals

LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase: After the Falcons foiled the Bengals’ dream scenario of having quarterbacks taken as the first four picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, Cincinnati’s choice comes down to Chase and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell, without Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, who would have filled a more urgent need. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has said he wants Jonah Williams, the former Alabama All-American picked 11th in 2019, and Riley Reiff, a free-agent signee, playing left and right tackle, respectively. If that’s the case, QB Joe Burrow will reunite with Chase, who caught 20 TD passes when they played together for LSU’s 2019 CFP national championship team.

No. 6: Miami Dolphins

Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith: The Dolphins traded out of the No. 3 spot, then traded up from No. 12 to make this pick. And they’re going to pick a 166-pound player. Miami needs to add a top-flight receiver after 2020 No. 5 pick Tua Tagovailoa spent most of his rookie season throwing to wide receiver DeVante Parker, tight end Mike Gesicki, a collection of running backs, a kick returner and former quarterbacks turned wide receivers. That leaves Miami picking between former Tagovailoa teammates Smith and Jaylen Waddle.

Trade -- No. 7: Washington Football Team from the Detroit Lions

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields: The Falcons, Bengals and Dolphins resisted trade offers from quarterback-hungry teams, but Detroit, which has six draft picks this year and plenty of holes to fill, will take a deal. The Lions get Washington’s first-round pick this year, which is No. 19, as well as its first-round choice next year and this year’s third-rounder (No. 74 overall) and fourth-rounder (No. 124). But wait. Washington is doing this for an Ohio State quarterback? Didn’t it learn its lesson with the Buckeyes’ Dwayne Haskins, the 15th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft who’s now with Pittsburgh Steelers. That was a different group of pickers.

No. 8: Carolina Panthers

Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell: The Panthers might have been in the QB market, but with Sewell falling to No. 8 after the Bengals and Dolphins passed on him, Carolina will come out better off. Carolina used its 2021 franchise tag on right tackle Taylor Moton, and the Panthers get a bookend to protect new QB Sam Darnold.

Trade -- No. 9: Dallas Cowboys from the Denver Broncos

Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II: The Cowboys can’t take the chance the Broncos will pick Surtain at No. 9, so Dallas moves up one spot by exchanging first-round picks with Denver and paying a 2022 third-round choice for the privilege. The Cowboys liked what Trevon Diggs showed after they drafted him in the second round last season, once he got his feet under him. After April 29, Dallas will have a set of Alabama cornerbacks.

Trade -- No. 10: Denver Broncos from the Dallas Cowboys

Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons: The Broncos move back one spot in the first round and take at No. 10 the player that they might have taken if they had stayed at No. 9 – and pick up a draft pick for next year in the process.

Trade -- No. 11: New England Patriots from the New York Giants

Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle: The Patriots must get their quarterback situation settled, right? Well, it doesn’t matter who’s throwing the football for New England if the Patriots don’t improve their unthreatening wide-receiver corps. Waddle will put electricity in a New England offense that lacks it, giving a jolt to the QB and the running game to boot. As for quarterback, Florida’s Kyle Trask will be there when the Patriots pick at No. 46. After that selection, New England will be off the board for a little while, because in addition to their No. 15 pick, the Patriots will have to give up the 96th, 120th and 122nd selections to move up four spots.

Trade -- No. 12: Chicago Bears from the Philadelphia Eagles

North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance: Beaten by Washington in its attempt to move into the Detroit Lions’ No. 7 pick, Chicago acts quickly after the New England Patriots traded into the No. 11 pick, then chose a wide receiver, leaving Lance available. To get the quarterback who might have the best arm and best running ability in the draft, the Bears send the Eagles the No. 20 and No. 52 selections in this year’s draft.

No. 13: Los Angeles Chargers

Virginia Tech offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw: The Chargers get a left tackle to protect QB Justin Herbert. Sam Tevi played that spot last season for Los Angeles. He left in free agency for the Indianapolis Colts, and the Chargers didn’t seem to care.

No. 14: Minnesota Vikings

Southern Cal guard Alijah Vera-Tucker: The Vikings are expected to move right guard Ezra Cleveland to left tackle to fill the spot vacated when veteran Riley Reiff lost his roster spot in a salary-cap dump. Vera-Tucker played guard and tackle for USC.

Trade -- No. 15: New York Giants from the New England Patriots

Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye: New York general manager Dave Gettleman moved back in the first round? He doesn’t trade back. But this makes too much sense for him to being muleheaded about it. Leonard Williams was the only consistent pass-rusher for the Giants in 2020. New York’s original No. 11 pick might have been a little high to take a player who wasn’t a prolific sack-producer in college but has the physical attributes that say he should be. And the move down boosts the Giants from six choices to nine for the 2021 draft.

No. 16: Arizona Cardinals

South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn: After 10 seasons – eight as a Pro Bowler and three as a first-team All-Pro – cornerback Patrick Peterson left Arizona for the Minnesota Vikings in free agency last month. The Cardinals’ other starting cornerback, former Gadsden City High School and Alabama standout Dre Kirkpatrick, remains adrift in free agency. Arizona signed former West Alabama star Malcolm Butler in free agency after the Tennessee Titans made him a salary-cap casualty. Horn continues the Cards’ secondary makeover.

No. 17: Las Vegas Raiders

Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: The Raiders reached to take Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette with the 19th selection in 2020 and Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 in 2019, so who knows what Las Vegas will do in 2021? The offensive line could use some work, but the Raiders take the best player on the board instead.

Trade -- No. 18: Indianapolis Colts from the Miami Dolphins

Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater: After 10 seasons at left offensive tackle for the Colts, Anthony Castonzo retired this offseason. Indianapolis gave itself options with free-agent signings, and Slater provides another with experience at both tackle spots and guard-like physical attributes. To move up three spots in the first round, the Colts had to include their 2022 third-round pick in the deal, but the trade gets them ahead of the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, who might have chosen Slater.

Trade -- No. 19: Detroit Lions from the Washington Football Team

Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore: There’s always that one first-round pick that leaves the draft observers scratching their heads. This is it. But the Lions desperately need a wide receiver for new quarterback Jared Goff, and Moore is the pick over LSU’s Terrace Marshall Jr. and Florida’s Kadarius Toney. By moving down from No. 7, Detroit boosted its 2021 draft larder from six to eight picks and has an extra first-rounder next year in case Goff doesn’t workout and it needs to move on North Carolina QB Sam Howell.

Trade -- No. 20: Philadelphia Eagles from the Chicago Bears

Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley: Farley went to Virginia Tech as a quarterback and moved to wide receiver before winding up in the secondary, so he could have used the reps that he didn’t get in the 2020 season by opting out. But a top-15 physical talent available at No. 20 intersects with a defense that allowed 27 TD passes while making eight interceptions in 2020.

Trade -- No. 21: Miami Dolphins from the Indianapolis Colts

Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins: It’s about time for the first running back to be picked in the 2021 draft, and the Dolphins certainly have a need at that position. However, Miami is building a top 10 defense under Brian Flores, and Collins is a big-but-flexible linebacker who would allow the coach to continue to do that.

Trade -- No. 22: Kansas City Chiefs from the Tennessee Titans

Oklahoma State offensive tackle Teven Jenkins: The Chiefs have overhauled their offensive line this offseason after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had quarterback Patrick Mahomes under siege in Super Bowl LV. All that remains is an opening at left tackle. Fearing Jenkins won’t make it to its pick at No. 31 and viewing him as the last first-round-worthy offensive tackle available, Kansas City pulls the trigger on a trade with Tennessee. To swap first-round spots with the Titans, the Chiefs also have to give up their 2021 third-round pick (No. 94 overall) and a 2022 fourth-round choice.

No. 23: New York Jets

Penn State edge Jayson Oweh: New York will feel confident about being able to add a starting cornerback or one of the top running backs with their second-round pick, the 34th overall, so they can take a pass-rusher here with the intention of pairing Oweh with former Auburn standout Carl Lawson as the defensive ends, a position that played a big role in new coach Robert Saleh’s success as the San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator.

No. 24: Pittsburgh Steelers

Alabama running back Najee Harris: The first running back of the 2021 draft goes to Pittsburgh, which finished last in the NFL in rushing yards in the 2020 season. A 230-pound ball-carrier in the tradition of Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis for the Steelers.

Trade -- No. 25: Cleveland Browns from the Jacksonville Jaguars

Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore: All that talk by new Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer about the importance of the defensive line spooks the Browns into moving up one spot to get Barmore before the Jaguars might. After signing Jadeveon Clowney in free agency to bookend the defensive line with Myles Garrett, Cleveland beefs up its defensive interior in front of new middle linebacker Anthony Walker. The spot swap also costs the Browns their fifth-round pick (No. 132 overall), giving Jacksonville 11 selections in this year’s draft.

Trade -- No. 26: Jacksonville Jaguars from the Cleveland Browns

TCU safety Trevon Moehrig: Flipping picks with the Browns moves the Jaguars from the front of their defense to the back as they select the best safety prospect of 2020.

No. 27: Baltimore Ravens

Miami (Fla.) edge Jaelan Phillips: The Ravens are a best-player-on-the-board-type of team. Fortunately for Baltimore, that player might be Phillips. The Ravens were a middle-of-the-league pass-rushing team in 2020, although 17 players recorded sacks. This offseason, the team leader, Matt Judon, left for the New England Patriots in free agency, and Yannick Ngakoue, who had three sacks in nine games for Baltimore, joined the Las Vegas Raiders.

No. 28: New Orleans Saints

Florida wide receiver Kadarius Toney: The Saints have gotten thin at wide receiver and New Orleans coach Sean Payton can work wonders with a gadget-type player. The former Blount High School quarterback works both ways.

No. 29: Green Bay Packers

Alabama center Landon Dickerson: Losing All-Pro center Corey Linsley in free agency probably wouldn’t have been enough to get the Packers to forsake taking a cornerback at this spot. But the loss of All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari to a torn ACL on Dec. 31 also must be considered. Green Bay hopes Bakhtiari will miss only half the 2021 season. The Packers are expected to shift left guard Elgton Jenkins into the Bakhtiari vacancy, furthering weakening their offensive interior, and Dickerson’s size may make him a better fit at guard.

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No. 30: Buffalo Bills

Georgia edge Azeez Ojulari: The Bills are going to take a chance that Ojulari can play defensive end in an NFL 4-3 front when his physique might seem more like a 3-4 outside linebacker. If that turns out to be true, then Buffalo has a successor for defensive ends Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes, who have a combined 21 seasons of NFL experience.

Trade -- No. 31: Tennessee Titans from the Kansas City Chiefs in a trade

Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II: Only three teams gave up more passing yards than the Titans in 2020. With Newsome, free-agent signee Janoris Jenkins and 2020 second-round pick Kristian Fulton, who played in only six games as a rookie, Tennessee will have a new look at cornerback in 2021.

Trade -- No. 32: Arizona Cardinals from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in trade

Clemson running back Travis Etienne: With all the starters returning from last season’s Super Bowl LV championship team, the Buccaneers don’t have an immediate need for rookies. Tampa Bay also is among the handful of teams that still has some work to do on its salary cap to have enough room for its draft class. By trading the No. 32, No. 64 and No. 176 picks to the Cardinals, the Bucs drop to five picks in 2021 while picking up Arizona’s 2022 first-round choice. The Cardinals go from six 2021 draft picks to nine, get ahead of early second-round pickers such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins who might have taken Etienne off the board and replace leading rusher Kenyan Drake, who left in free agency.

FOR MORE OF AL.COM’S COVERAGE OF THE NFL, GO TO OUR NFL PAGE

Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @AMarkG1.

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