New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas was arguably the biggest fantasy football bust of the 2020 season, as he followed up his remarkable, record-setting season of 149 receptions and 1,725 receiving yards with 40 catches, 438 yards and nary a touchdown. Yep, the No. 1 wide receiver in most ESPN average live drafts scored fewer PPR fantasy points than nearly 100 others did at his position, and while he had a darn good excuse with a serious high ankle sprain, still, it happened. No asterisks in fantasy football.
Fantasy managers love their big names and bounce-back options, and Thomas qualifies, but he is also a far bigger risk than most, as we lack clarity on when he will play again. This is a problem. Rather than undergo surgery to fix the torn ankle ligaments when the season ended, Thomas opted for rest. He had the surgery months later in June, frustrating his coach and guaranteeing an unnecessary delayed start to his 2021 season.
Whether Thomas returns in September, October or even later will be one of the stories to follow in the coming weeks, but for those craving clarity, it might not matter. Thomas thrives more on precision route running and excellent hands rather than burner speed, but still, let us repeat the fact that he is already hurt. Even if the surgery fixes everything, who wants to utilize an early draft pick and wait until well into the season for a player who is hardly a guarantee to return to prior statistical greatness? Thomas is a compromised player and, frankly, so may be the offense he once knew.
Future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees retired and left erratic Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill behind. Perhaps this new normal works out for Thomas and star running back Alvin Kamara, but it comes with some risk. The Saints do not want Winston throwing the football 626 times, as he did in 2019 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with 30 of them caught by the opposing defense. Winston is talented, but he is hardly Brees. He is neither accurate nor consistent. Hill had several nice games but rarely threw the football downfield.
Like most everyone else on this oft-misunderstood "Do Not Draft" list, it hardly means to ignore Thomas altogether, but his early ADP (average draft position) is in Round 7 and -- sorry, folks -- that remains too generous. Give me Denver Broncos bounce-back candidate Courtland Sutton instead. He is younger and ready for Week 1. Give me one of the Cincinnati Bengals' receiving stars, productive Carolina Panthers vet Robby Anderson or perhaps one of the potential starting running backs, such as Mike Davis of the Atlanta Falcons or Denver Broncos rookie Javonte Williams.
Some will say investing in Thomas depends on the construction of your roster, and that might be true. Each team is different. In addition, wide receiver is always a deep statistical position, so taking a chance with a proven, high-upside option as a home run call might be worth it. Some will secure a starting lineup of running backs and wide receivers (flex-eligible options) and then take a chance on a record-breaking player. Decent risk, right? Thomas broke records in 2019. It was not a decade ago. The fact that he had more suspensions than touchdowns in 2020 is somewhat irrelevant. It was a bad year. Happens to all of us. All true, but is this risk worth the reward?
The annual Do Not Draft list features players coming in drafts or salary-cap leagues at a cost that is not commensurate with their fantasy value. We do not hate these players. We may not agree with their value, but this happens every year, in every fantasy sport, because investors look for big names with past production. Draft for future production instead.
Anyway, here is a potential starting roster of others who, for various reasons, seem like poor values to this analyst based on their ADP.
Quarterback
In the past, I would simply list the top quarterback in ADP (often Peyton Manning, but nothing personal!) and back it up by saying nobody at this relatively deep position is worth a first- or second-round pick. I still believe that to some degree, but Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes is not necessarily a bad pick early in a draft. The issue is passing on the comparatively weak position of running back in the early rounds, though. Arizona Cardinals star Kyler Murray might turn out to be a bad value if he follows through on his threat to run less than last season, but nobody denies his talents. In terms of current ADP trends in the early rounds, now that Aaron Rodgers is playing again, no quarterbacks appear to be truly bad values. Yet.
However, Indianapolis Colts newcomer Carson Wentz is no longer worthy of any draft spot in standard leagues, as his situation somewhat mirrors Thomas'. Wentz seems unlikely to play in September games, at the least, after midsummer foot surgery, and even when healthy, it tends not to last long. Quarterback is deep. I will also avoid Houston Texans starter Deshaun Watson because I expect there to be a league-mandated suspension for Watson, who is facing allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior in 22 pending lawsuits. Miami Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa is being overvalued in drafts just based on his name. Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Trevor Lawrence is better suited for fantasy stardom.
Running back
New York Giants starter Saquon Barkley is the obvious name because the organization continues to stress so much patience with his recovery from knee surgery that it is hard to believe Barkley will see a full workload early in the season. Barkley shredded his right knee in Week 2 last season, and ordinarily, the timeline would work for him to return in plenty of time for this September. The Giants keep reporting he might not get his typical workload early in the season. Something is amiss here. Barkley dropped to borderline RB1/2 status in my rankings, so this is not like avoiding the Saints' Thomas, but I would not invest in Barkley in the opening round anymore.
While investment comes more than a few rounds later for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' running backs, it sure looks like the frustrating timeshare between Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II gets more confusing with pass-catching Giovani Bernard joining the offense as well. Fantasy managers can opt for one or more from this group and hope performance and/or health alters the dynamic, but chances are this will remain a fluid situation for months. Somewhat similarly but with lesser production, neither of the Buffalo Bills' running backs, Zack Moss nor Devin Singletary, seems in much hurry to push the other aside, leaving neither in decent flex territory.
Finally, even after the Texans oddly traded for David Johnson a year ago, we still featured him in this space, and, it turns out, rightly so. Johnson is becoming an annual member. He was fantastic for the Arizona Cardinals in 2016. Fantasy managers loved him. Since then, not so much. Last season, he struggled again with health issues and, despite ample touches, barely reached 1,000 total yards. Johnson is a fantasy reserve, and the additions of Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead inspire little confidence that any one player shines.
Other RBs to avoid: New England Patriots starter Damien Harris caught only five more passes than you and I did last season. If that ever changes in a big way for the positive, perhaps we reassess his value. In PPR formats, he is not worth it. ... When San Francisco 49ers speedster Raheem Mostert shows he can stay healthy, same deal. He played in eight games last season, and the backfield is crowded. ... The Las Vegas Raiders have a starter in Josh Jacobs, so the Kenyan Drake signing seems odd and likely to frustrate. ... The Denver Broncos drafted enticing Javonte Williams in Round 2 because the first season of the Melvin Gordon III experience was hardly fascinating. Read the room here.
Wide receiver
Cleveland Browns attention-getter Odell Beckham Jr. appears healthy after tearing an ACL in Week 7 of last season, but he sure was not performing up to reasonable expectations before the injury. Beckham's first six games yielded fewer than four receptions and 60 receiving yards per game. Only four teams attempted fewer passes than the Baker Mayfield-led Browns did, and there is little reason to expect change in 2021. Get Nick Chubb early. Pass on Beckham in Round 7.
Beckham had big seasons for the New York Giants, but that was with Eli Manning at quarterback. Daniel Jones is hardly Eli Manning, so good luck to new Giants hopeful Kenny Golladay. Jones threw 11 touchdown passes in 14 games last season. Golladay's presence surely helps, but he missed much of the 2020 season with hip and hamstring injuries and has already missed practice time this summer with another hamstring problem. Golladay had a big year with Matthew Stafford in 2019. Daniel Jones is not Stafford.
Don't avoid new Dolphins starter William Fuller V because he will miss Week 1 serving a performance-enhancing drug suspension. Avoid him in the first 10 rounds of your draft because he cannot stay on the field because of injuries. Fuller missed 24 games in his first four seasons, and he already has a foot injury suffered in training camp. Everyone acknowledges his speed and talent, but Fuller is not a high-volume target (think DeSean Jackson for modest reception totals), and he joins a new offense with a raw, inexperienced quarterback in Tagovailoa.
Others to avoid: The Tennessee Titans have a potential WR1 in A.J. Brown. That is not Julio Jones anymore. Draft him as a borderline WR2/3 and it is OK, but it seems inevitable his ADP rises higher than that. ... Good for the Bengals, Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles for investing high draft picks on wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, respectively, but stop presuming one or more of them will step up to become this season's Justin Jefferson. Rookie receivers rarely sparkle right away. Second-year options such as Dallas' CeeDee Lamb, Denver's Jerry Jeudy and even the Las Vegas Raiders' Henry Ruggs III are safer choices teeming with their own upside. ... Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers enters Year 5 without a 50-catch season. He is what he is. ... The Colts' T.Y. Hilton has consecutive disappointing seasons and a quarterback problem. ... The Cardinals signed A.J. Green, but you do not need to invest in someone who is 33 and averaged 5 yards per target last season.
Tight end
Those choosing Green Bay Packers surprise Robert Tonyan in the first 10 rounds might be disappointed if they expect another 11 touchdowns. Tonyan had 59 targets last season, 24th at the position. Even with Rodgers back at quarterback, this is an unsustainable rate of touchdowns for any receiving option.
Others to avoid: The big names appear relatively safe, though many fantasy analysts believe Atlanta Falcons rookie Kyle Pitts is going too early. I think he is special, though, and consider him a reasonable sixth-round pick. Those drafting his teammate Hayden Hurst, however, might be disappointed. ... The Patriots have Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and as long as each is there, and Cam Newton is the QB, it seems unlikely either will be a fantasy starter. ... Giants underachiever Evan Engram may look like a starting tight end in fantasy and get treated as such, but his statistics rarely back it up. It took years, but fantasy managers seem to get it now.
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