What does Chris Paul's new four-year deal mean for him and the defending Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns?
After declining a player option worth $44.2 million, Paul will stay with the Suns by agreeing Monday to a four-year deal worth up to $120 million, his agents, Steve Heumann and Ty Sullivan, told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The deal gives Phoenix a bit more financial flexibility this season but could imply greater future luxury-tax payments.
With backup point guard Cameron Payne also indicating on Twitter that he's agreed to stay with the Suns, let's take a look at where their roster stands and what else Phoenix might look to add.
More security for CP3
Although this deal pays Paul far less than he was set to make with his player option, a four-year deal provides a far longer-term guarantee. If Paul put together another season like his past two, he would have again been one of the top free agents on the market in the summer of 2022 even at age 37. Still, we need to look back no further than Paul's injury-marred final season with the Houston Rockets in 2018-19 to see that continued success is not guaranteed.
If we look at this deal in comparison to the alternative scenario of Paul picking up his option and then signing an extension with the Suns starting in 2022-23, he's guaranteed an additional $46 million, or an average of $23 million in new money. That's a reasonable ballpark for what a two-year contract for Paul might have looked like next summer after pricing in the risk of a decline next season.
As important as the money is the fit that Paul found in Phoenix, where his veteran presence both on and off the court helped lift the Suns to the Finals for the first time in 28 years. In agreeing to a trade to Phoenix last fall, Paul clearly emphasized the ability to stay near his family home in Los Angeles. All of those were reasons for Paul to sign long term with the Suns rather than looking around in free agency either this summer or next to maximize his salary.
More tax room for Suns -- for now
We don't yet know the exact structure of Paul's new contract, which could start as low as $26.8 million or as high as $33 million if the salaries descend instead of increase, but either way it's a substantial 2021-22 savings for Phoenix. That should allow the Suns to be aggressive in free agency this offseason.
The pay cut for Paul should allow Phoenix to re-sign Payne and use both the $9.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and the $3.7 million biannual exception without going into the luxury tax. The first priority with those exceptions will be adding frontcourt depth after backup center Dario Saric suffered an ACL tear during the NBA Finals, an injury that likely will sideline him for the entire 2021-22 season.
The Suns are counting on Jalen Smith to take a step forward in his second season after he played sparingly as a rookie. And they may wish to sign a replacement for Torrey Craig, who agreed to a reported two-year, $10 million deal with the Indiana Pacers after getting rotation minutes for Phoenix as a defensive specialist during the playoffs.
Payroll increases coming
The challenge for the Suns is that paying Paul less now meant guaranteeing him approximately $30 million a year going forward. Phoenix's payroll will jump in 2022-23 when rookie extensions for Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges kick in, the former likely for the maximum salary for players with up to six years of experience. Those extensions will surely put the Suns into the 2022-23 luxury tax before they consider an extension for newly acquired guard Landry Shamet or fill out their roster.
That's notable given Phoenix hasn't paid the tax since 2008-09, per Spotrac.com data.
There are still avenues for the Suns to mitigate their 2022-23 tax bill and plenty of time to do so. For now, credit Phoenix for doing what it took to retain Paul and remain in contention in the Western Conference.
It's likely the Suns' path in the 2022 postseason will be more challenging than the one they faced this year, when each of their West opponents was missing a key starter (Anthony Davis for much of the first round, Jamal Murray in the second round and Kawhi Leonard in the conference finals). Phoenix might also deal with more injuries during the regular season; only the NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks lost fewer games to player injury, illness or the health and safety protocols, according to my analysis.
Still, for the Suns to get back to the Finals or one step further, they needed to retain Paul.
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