For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change from when I write this until game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 9.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: With no Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford on this slate, it looks like I'm going to have to work for a living in Week 9. Enter Allen and the Bills offense for my tournament double-stacks. Buffalo has a team total of 31.5, which is the highest on the slate by almost two full points. Jacksonville allows the third-most red zone drives per game and the third-highest completion percentage on deep passes. Allen obviously brings a lot to the table through the air but also has provided a solid floor and ceiling with his legs. He has had either a rushing touchdown or a 15-yard run in five of his last six games. While the Allen double-stacks are going to be expensive, there aren't that many premium options this week at quarterback.
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings: The changes in Jackson's game in 2021 have been glaring -- and extremely positive. The Ravens are throwing the ball way more in neutral game-script situations than in the past two years and Jackson is sporting his highest yards per attempt of his career. The rushing floor is still there with at least seven carries in every game this season and Minnesota is allowing a league-high 25.6 yards per out-of-pocket completion, something that feeds right into Jackson's game.
Jordan Love ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and will be out this weekend, opening up a massive door to value with Love priced at only $4,400 on DraftKings. The Packers' pass-catching group (outside of Robert Tonyan) is getting healthier and Love will have a full complement of targets to throw to in what is a fantastic offensive environment against the Chiefs. While the spread on this game jumped from a pick'em to Kansas City being favored by a touchdown, the over/under merely shifted by a single point. That leaves this matchup with the highest total of the entire slate. Love will be in play as a very easy path to salary relief against a defense that has given up the second-most QB points on DraftKings.
Also interested in
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: Herbert looks to get right this week against the Eagles, who rank below-average in QB-pressure rate. Philadelphia blitzes opposing quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate in the league.
Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns: Burrow double-stacks have been easy to identify this season -- and extremely profitable. He is the only quarterback in 2021 to have thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game he's played.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans: The Texans create the least pressure in the league (only 21.5% of QB dropbacks) and allow the second-most red zone drives per game. While Tagovailoa may not be viewed as a very sexy option in fantasy, he's certainly in play this week against Houston.
Running backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos: Elliott has dominated the snaps and RB touches in Dallas, even with the expanded role that Tony Pollard has carved out this season. In Week 8, Elliott saw a 52-17 snap edge over Pollard, and over the last two games has garnered 15 targets in the Cowboys offense. One of the perennial league-leaders in terms of inside-the-5 carries, Elliot provides a solid floor in a fantastic offense with a very real TD upside every single week. At $7,000 on DraftKings? That is simply too cheap and I expect that Elliott will be very popular in both cash and tournaments in Week 9.
Nick Chubb ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: There's a lot going on in Cleveland right now with the Odell Beckham Jr. situation, but one thing that remains a constant is that Chubb will get fed the football when he is healthy. In Week 8, he saw a 32-18 snap edge over D'Ernest Johnson, an advantage I expect to widen in Week 9 in the continued absence of Kareem Hunt. Chubb, with 15-plus carries in four straight games (and in five of his six games this season), brings a solid floor against the team he shredded last season to the tune of 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He is also averaging a career-high 2.43 yards after first contact this season.
Myles Gaskin ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans: Since Malcolm Brown went on IR, Gaskin has seen a very similar workload to what he saw for all of 2020. My expectation for Gaskin this week is 13-17 carries, 3-6 targets and a heightened TD expectation against a Houston defense that has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 32.6% of drives. The Texans are also allowing a league-high 2.6 yards after contact to opposing running backs, which bodes well for Gaskin. He has had a 15-plus yard touch in 6 of 8 games this season.
Also interested in
Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have allowed the second-most DraftKings RB points, including an 88.4% completion rate when opponents target the position. This is an excellent spot for Ekeler against a defense that is ill-equipped to stop a player with his particular set of skills.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Patterson had already earned a merit-based promotion before the Calvin Ridley news last week. However, now we'll see a very secure heightened snap percentage moving forward. He is one of the two best options on this Atlanta offense since his price tag on DraftKings has not yet been adjusted.
Zack Moss ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville has allowed a touchdown on 4.6% of RB carries and Buffalo averages 4.7 red zone trips per game. Moss has wrested the primary RB role away from Devin Singletary, is actively used in the passing game (as evidenced by his six catches in Week 9), and provides a pivot (at value) from Allen and the Bills' pass-catchers.
Wide receivers
Tyreek Hill ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers: Hill would be on this list even without the 18 targets he saw on Monday night. The fact that his usage this season has spiked so hard in the target department has taken one of the higher variance players and given him an extremely realistic floor, while still having access to a 35-plus point ceiling every time he takes the field. This week's game has the highest total of the week and the Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total. The Packers defense has been terrible at stopping opponents from scoring once they enter the red zone -- and the Chiefs offense has the most red zone trips in the league. Considering that Hill can score from anywhere, but also is the Chiefs' leader in both red zone touches and end zone targets? That speaks volumes as to how great a combination cash and tournament play he is in Week 9.
Tee Higgins ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns: Higgins has been one of the most unlucky players in fantasy football in 2021, logging a ton of targets every time he plays while not having had a true breakout game -- even with Burrow posting massive numbers on a weekly basis. Something has to give here, so I'm going to be betting on Higgins to outperform his $5,300 price tag on DraftKings due to his regular ample volume and the high TD upside (given the amount of end zone targets he gets when healthy).
Marquise Brown ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings: Due to the way the Ravens offense is constructed, Brown remains one of the most valuable big-splash players on a weekly basis. What many don't realize is that Brown is currently tied for the league-lead (9) in end zone targets. He's no longer a player who is "boom or bust" as evidenced by the fact he's had five-plus targets in every game this year -- and seven-plus in half of the Ravens' first eight contests. Brown now brings us a more stable floor, along with slate-breaking upside due to the weekly possibility of multiple touchdowns.
Also interested in
Keenan Allen ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: He's had four games this season with at least 11 targets. Allen also matched a season-high with eight slot targets in Week 8. The Eagles allow a touchdown on 8.8% of passes to the slot, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Amari Cooper ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos: The Broncos allow a touchdown on 13.1% of deep passes -- only Kansas City has fared worse. Throughout the month of October, Cooper saw his target count climb every week and he now has more games with multiple red zone targets than games without any red zone targets.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers: The best time to roll with a player in DFS is when his production has been down and the percentage of players who are confident in rostering him is waning. I believe that Kelce's lack of 2021 touchdowns is directly due to how the Chiefs have deployed him in the red zone versus in previous campaigns. After having led the Chiefs for the past two seasons, Kelce has not logged a single end zone target in 2021. What? I'm hoping that the Chiefs realize this and, moving forward, work to correct the mistake of not throwing the ball to their best target in and around the end zone. Green Bay has the third-worst red zone defense in the league and, as disappointed as many have been in Kelce's performance this year, he still leads tight ends in total targets and is third at the position in terms of air yards. The touchdowns will return as soon as the end zone targets do. Hopefully, the Chiefs get the memo.
Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: The 2021 Ravens defense has turned into a passing funnel, allowing tons of yards through the air to tight ends and allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Very simply, Conklin has seen way too much usage over the past five weeks in Minnesota's offense to be priced at $3,000 in this matchup. With 29 targets over the last five games Conklin doesn't have to do much to pay off his salary. If he's able to wander into the end zone in one of the weekend's highest total games and best game environments, he'll be an absolute smash.
Also interested in
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers: When it comes to running backs and tight ends, I try to keep the message simple: "Target targets." Goedert will remain one of the highest routes-per-dropback options at the TE position moving forward. We just have to hope that the Eagles throw the ball more than 19 times in Week 9 in order for him to easily surpass his value at this salary.
Dan Arnold ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo's defense is solid, but it's softer in the middle. The Bills have allowed the second-lowest WR completion percentage, while being ranked only 18th against tight ends. Arnold's volume looks to be secure in terms of snaps, routes per dropback, and targets per routes run.
Defenses
Buffalo Bills ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), vs. Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,900 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel), vs Browns
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel), vs. Packers
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.
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