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College Football Playoff working group to endorse expansion to 12 teams - The Athletic

Why this format?

Nicole Auerbach, senior college football writer: The biggest issue with the four-team model was a lack of access. So many teams started the season with no viable path to the postseason's marquee event.

This format celebrates conference champions, so it will keep fans engaged with conference races late in the regular season.

It also allows the great Group of 5 teams to get a real chance, which they don't get right now. I love the idea of on-campus first-round games. That has the potential to be truly electric.

Biggest winners

Stewart Mandel, college football editor-in-chief: Believe it or not, the Group of 5. By framing it as “the six highest-ranked conference champions,” rather than guaranteeing automatic bids for every Power 5 league, not only will at least one Group of 5 conference champ be included every year, but it’s possible some years there could be two.

In fact, it would have happened last season, albeit under unusual circumstances, when both AAC champion Cincinnati (No. 8) and Sun Belt co-champion Coastal Carolina (No. 12) finished higher than Pac-12 champion Oregon (No. 25).

How will this affect media rights?

Mandel: That’s the multibillion-dollar question, and it will depend on whether the CFP moves to install the new system as soon as possible, which is likely 2023, or wait until the current contract ends in 2025-26.

If sooner, ESPN gets an exclusive opportunity to retain the rights, and while it will presumably pony up and pay substantially more than it does now (an average of $608 million), the CFP would stand to make even more if it went to the open market in 2026.

How likely is the expansion to happen?

Auerbach: I'd be shocked if we come out of the summer with a recommitment to staying at four.

The momentum has been heading in the direction of expansion for more than two years at this point, and this is a proposal that has a lot of time and effort behind it.

I expect that the commissioners — particularly those in the Group of 5 leagues — will find a lot to like in it. I don't know that we'll get to the point of ironing out all the details in terms of timing, media rights, etc. by the end of the summer, but I would expect this recommendation to gain support and move forward.

(Photo: Doug Murray / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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