Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Bills WR Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox
- Emmanuel Sanders has emerged as a key playmaker for the Bills, but regression is looming -- and our expert is betting on it starting on Monday Night Football.
- Find out why, of all the NFL prop picks for Titans vs. Bills, this Sanders under is the most valuable based on our expert's projections.
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL player prop for every primetime game of the 2021 season. He has a 428-325-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Bills vs. Titans
Emmanuel Sanders Under 4.5 Receptions (-120)
Sanders signed with the Bills via free agency this past offseason and has ran away with the No. 3 wide receiver role ahead of Gabriel Davis. Sanders has established himself as one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets and is off to an excellent start with a very efficient line of 19/322/4 on just 31 targets.
Whenever we have a receiver banking on elite efficiency like that, it can create some value to fade them in their receptions market, which I will be doing here.
Sanders is sporting a 61% catch rate despite having an aDot of 16.5, and a player with an aDot that high would typically have a catch rate closer to 54.5%. Taking a closer look at targets 20+ yards downfield, Sanders has caught 5-of-9 (56%) from Allen (league average is 40%) while Stefon Diggs has hauled in only 4-of-12 (33%). Therefore, we can expect Diggs’ and Sanders’ downfield catch rates to regress toward league-average, making Diggs a good “buy low” and Sanders a “sell high.”
Fading Sanders in this market is also a way to bank on Diggs, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox — all three are set up nicely for Monday Night Football. Diggs is due for positive regression (as we established above), Beasley is due for a bounce-back game after only seeing four targets over the past two games, and Knox has a serious #Homecoming game narrative.
Sanders is averaging 6.2 targets a game this season. To haul in five passes with that target rate, he would have to catch around 80% — something I’m willing to bet against tonight.
I’m projecting him for 4.0 targets and a 62% chance of going under 4.5 receptions. A fair line for this market would be closer to -170 and I would bet it down to -150.
Pick: Under 4.5 Receptions (-120) at BetMGM
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