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Your bracket for the 2021 NCAA men's tournament is hopelessly busted. So is ours. And that's OK. We're all in this together, and now we can just sit back and enjoy the final four rounds of this wild and crazy dance.
Though this tournament has been almost entirely unpredictable through the first two rounds, we're not going to stop making predictions.
In fact, with fewer games to worry about, we've dug even deeper into the matchups than usual and feel more confident than ever with these predictions.
(Disclaimer: One can be "more confident" in a coin flip than a dart throw, which is about where we're at on a couple of these games.)
After each of these Sweet 16 clashes goes final, check back here for postgame synopses, as we'll be updating this tracker throughout the day on Saturday and Sunday.
Pregame analysis written by Kerry Miller.
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Matchup: No. 8 Loyola-Chicago vs. No. 12 Oregon State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: The first game of the Sweet 16 won't be setting any records for most points scored, but it will guarantee at least one fun underdog to root for in the Elite Eight.
Loyola-Chicago Wins If: The battle in the paint plays out as it should. The Ramblers make 58.3 percent of their two-point attempts and hold opponents to 45.7. That's a difference of plus-12.6. Oregon State's difference is minus-2.8. Loyola also typically wins the rebounding battle while OSU does not.
Oregon State Wins If: It can force Loyola-Chicago into a physical game. The Ramblers almost never foul. There were even two games this season in which their opponent did not make a single free throw. But when they have allowed at least 18 free-throw attempts, the Ramblers are 0-3. And Oregon State just played a game against Oklahoma State with a combined 73 free throws. Bonus points if the Beavers can somehow get Cameron Krutwig into foul trouble. It doesn't happen often, but Loyola is 1-5 over the past three seasons when the big man commits four or more fouls.
Most Important Players Are: Cameron Krutwig for Loyola-Chicago and Jarod Lucas for Oregon State. Krutwig is the most singularly important player left in this tournament, and especially in this game. If he fills up the box score like he did against Illinois, the Ramblers roll into the Elite Eight. And to combat Loyola's edge in the paint, Oregon State would benefit from a big game out of its sophomore shooting guard. Lucas has made multiple triples in eight consecutive games.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Loyola-Chicago
Kerry Miller: Loyola-Chicago
Joel Reuter: Loyola-Chicago
2 of 8
Matchup: No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 5 Villanova (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Saturday's slate will primarily be filled with potential Cinderella stories, but this clash between the second-best team in the country and a foe that has won two of the last four national championships should be phenomenal.
Baylor Wins If: It out-shoots Villanova. This isn't some John Madden-ish "Well, you know, the team with more points is probably going to win the game" observation. Three-pointers are likely going to dictate this outcome. Baylor is generally the more accurate team, leading the nation in three-point percentage. But Villanova loves to let it fly, too, and has made at least 10 threes in 10 games, including Sunday's 15-of-30 gem against North Texas. Hard to see Villanova winning unless it hits more triples than Baylor.
Villanova Wins If: It handles Baylor's ball pressure and shoots well. Villanova has been spectacular in the "turnovers committed" department all year long, even after losing its senior point guard. But it hasn't faced a test like this yet. When Villanova has the ball, it'll be the most turnover-averse offense in the nation against the third-best turnover-forcing defense. Baylor did just force 14 turnovers against an equally turnover-averse Wisconsin. A similar number in this game would almost certainly spell disaster for the Wildcats.
Most Important Players Are: Davion Mitchell for Baylor and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl for Villanova. Mitchell is one of the best three-point shooters and one of the best individual defenders in the country. If he does his usual thing in this one, advantage Baylor. Robinson-Earl has 12 assists against two turnovers thus far in the tournament. If the new-found point-forward can maintain that ratio, an upset could be in the cards.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Baylor
Kerry Miller: Baylor
Joel Reuter: Baylor
3 of 8
Matchup: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Either Arkansas is headed back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1995 or Oral Roberts is going to be the first team in NCAA tournament history to reach a regional final as a No. 13 seed or worse.
Arkansas Wins If: The normal Oral Roberts defense finally shows up. After allowing 85.0 points per game and 1.13 points per possession in five tries against top 100 teams during the regular season, the Golden Eagles more than held their own on that end of the floor against Ohio State and Florida. They had a season-best 12 steals against Florida and somehow held Ohio State to 21.7 percent three-point shooting. But if things return to normal, Arkansas should score at will in a fast-paced affair.
Oral Roberts Wins If: Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor saved their best for the Sweet 16. It's probably going to take around 90 points to beat Arkansas, and that means Abmas and Obanor—who went for 59 against Ohio State and 54 against Florida—need to combine for more like 70 in this one. Which they could. Abmas put up 40 points on several occasions this season, and Obanor had a 39-point game in January.
Most Important Players Are: Justin Smith for Arkansas and Kevin Obanor for Oral Roberts. Obanor was the MVP of ORU's first two games because neither Ohio State nor Florida could figure out how to stifle the pick-and-pop. If Smith can stick with the Golden Eagles big man at the top of the key and keep him from getting open looks at threes, Cinderella's glass slipper falls off.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arkansas
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: Arkansas
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Matchup: No. 2 Houston vs. No. 11 Syracuse (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 9:55 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: The most aggressive defense in the country takes on the most famous zone defense known to mankind.
Houston Wins If: Rebounds matter. Houston ranks second in the nation in offensive rebounding, and Syracuse ranks 340th in defensive rebounding. In its two games against the No. 1 offensive rebounding team, Syracuse allowed a combined total of 50 offensive rebounds to North Carolina. Syracuse did still win one of those games, but Houston is way better than UNC on defense, at avoiding turnovers and at simply putting the ball in the hoop. If the Cougars are allowed to get back more than 53 percent of their misses like the Tar Heels were both times, they won't lose.
Syracuse Wins If: Buddy Boeheim torches Houston's defense and the 2-3 zone flummoxes Houston's offense. Syracuse's perimeter star has made at least five three-pointers in seven of his last nine games. The Cougars lead the nation in effective field-goal percentage on defense, but a white-hot shooter often trumps a great defense. Also of note: Syracuse has three starters who shoot better than 85 percent from the free-throw line, and Houston's defense commits more than its fair share of fouls.
Most Important Players Are: Justin Gorham for Houston and Buddy Boeheim for Syracuse. Gorham averages nearly 4.0 offensive rebounds per game and has grabbed at least seven on four occasions this year. He could clean up on the glass if he doesn't get into foul trouble in the process. And in a game that figures to have a final score in the 71-68 range, every Boeheim three-pointer is going to feel like it's worth four or five. If he goes on a three-possession hot streak, it could completely swing the game in Syracuse's favor.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Syracuse
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Syracuse
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Matchup: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 5 Creighton (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 2:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: After eliminating a pair of capable mid-majors, Creighton is tasked with trying to eliminate the greatest "mid-major" of them all.
Gonzaga Wins If: The offense does its thing. Gonzaga has shot at least 49.1 percent from the field in every game this season, averaging 92.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Creighton has only reached 80 points four times in its last 18 games and has averaged 60.5 in its past four contests. This will probably be one of Gonzaga's lower-scoring games, but we're talking about an offense that has scored at least 82 points in 89 percent of its games. As long as the Zags reach 80, they should be fine.
Creighton Wins If: It manages to frustrate Gonzaga. All due respect to Creighton, but Gonzaga is the much better team. However, the Bluejays are capable of making contested shots, and they do a fine job of slowing the game down on the defensive end of the floor—where Gonzaga prefers to score at a break-neck pace. If at any point the Zags start getting visibly irritated or committing turnovers by trying to force things too quickly, the upset watch is officially on.
Most Important Players Are: Drew Timme for Gonzaga and Marcus Zegarowski for Creighton. The Bluejays are a solid, perimeter-oriented team, but they aren't equipped to shut down a frontcourt force like Timme. He had 30 against Oklahoma, and he could go for even more in this one. And Zegarowski is the veteran leader most likely to get hot from three-point land.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga
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Matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Florida State (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 5 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Everyone loves a good Cinderella story, but Michigan vs. Florida State—the lone instance where both of the best-seeded teams survived the first weekend—should be the most entertaining game of the Sweet 16.
Michigan Wins If: Its frontcourt holds up against Florida State's. The Seminoles can bludgeon unsuspecting and undersized foes with their length and athleticism, but Michigan has a good deal of that, too. Granted, not quite as much without Isaiah Livers, but Hunter Dickinson is a 7'1" force at center, Franz Wagner is a sensational 6'9" stretch 4 and Brandon Johns Jr. has been an admirable 6'8" role player since joining the starting lineup three games ago. The Wolverines should hold their own in the paint, and then their three-point defense should fare better against FSU's 38.2 percent perimeter shooting than FSU's three-point defense will against Michigan's 38.5 percent perimeter shooting.
Florida State Wins If: It capitalizes on a defense that doesn't force many turnovers. Aside from inconsistent play, Florida State's biggest issue all season has been giving the ball away. In each of their six losses, the Seminoles committed at least 14 turnovers. However, Michigan has only forced 14 or more turnovers twice all season, one of which was an overtime game over Thanksgiving weekend. Florida State has good shooting percentages and a better offensive rebounding percentage, so that offense can be lethal when it isn't sabotaging itself.
Most Important Players Are: Franz Wagner for Michigan and Anthony Polite for Florida State. Wagner is the one Wolverine most likely to jump a passing lane or force a turnover, and his ability to defend multiple positions will be key against the Seminoles. And though Polite doesn't shoot a ton, he is FSU's most efficient scorer. He had 22 in the win over Colorado, and he could swing this game in the Seminoles' favor with a repeat performance.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida State
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Joel Reuter: Florida State
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Matchup: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 11 UCLA (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 7:15 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: UCLA has more national championships than any other school while Alabama is trying to get to the Elite Eight for just the second time in program history.
Alabama Wins If: It's an uptempo game where defense matters. Alabama allows more points per game (69.5) than UCLA does (67.9), but don't let that fool you into believing the Crimson Tide have the inferior defense. They are substantially better on that end of the floor, ranking third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. (Even after three tournament wins, UCLA is 63rd.) Alabama simply prefers to play at a much faster pace, which will be the game within the game.
UCLA Wins If: It's a slow game where offensive efficiency reigns supreme. Let's do the same as above by noting that Alabama scores more (79.7 PPG) than UCLA (73.1), even though the Bruins have the more efficient offense. Alabama is more likely to hit 10 three-pointers, but UCLA is more likely to make 40 percent of its three-point attempts. Such an intriguing contrast in styles.
Most Important Players Are: Jahvon Quinerly for Alabama and Tyger Campbell for UCLA. In a game where establishing the tempo could determine the victor, the play of the respective point guards will be critical. If Quinerly can push the pace while staying under control, Alabama wins. If Campbell limits fast-break opportunities and intentionally drains clock before taking/setting up good shots on offense, advantage UCLA.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
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Matchup: No. 6 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 9:45 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: With so many Pac-12 teams in the Sweet 16, there was bound to be a head-to-head matchup somewhere (USC won 72-58 during the only meeting this season).
USC Wins If: Its size causes problems for Oregon. The tallest Ducks starter is 6'6". (There are four 6'6" starters, but still.) The second-shortest USC starter is 6'7". During the regular-season meeting, USC finished plus-13 in rebounding margin, shot 50 percent on two-point tries and limited Oregon to 40 percent on its two-point tries. Suffice it to say, USC's size caused a problem in that game. And Isaiah Mobley (6'10", 7.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG) wasn't even available for the Trojans on that night, so they're even bigger this time around.
Oregon Wins If: It shoots like it has been lately. When these teams played in late February, Oregon was still finding its full-strength groove on offense. The Ducks had been held below 70 points in each of their previous three games, and it was their third game in five days. They came out cold and never recovered. Oregon has now scored at least 80 in five of its last six games, though, shooting 47.7 percent from three-point range during that stretch. USC has a sensational interior defense, but it is at least a little susceptible to the deep ball. There was a Duke-Syracuse game back in 2014 in which the Blue Devils attempted 36 three-pointers and Syracuse attempted four. Not hard to see this one playing out similarly with Oregon hoping for the best from the perimeter.
Most Important Players Are: Evan Mobley for USC and Chris Duarte for Oregon. Nothing fancy here. Mobley and Duarte are the best players on their respective teams, and they'll each be critical in what figures to be a nail-biter. But if this is the game where Mobley finally decides to realize he's the most unstoppable force in the sport, USC will win this game and darn well might knock off Gonzaga on Tuesday, too.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Oregon
Kerry Miller: USC
Joel Reuter: USC
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