Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here. And that means odds, where to watch games (Who missed RedZone?), and picks from The Athletic’s stable of writers for our NFL fans all in one place. After becoming the first NFL franchise to win a championship on its home field, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will ring in the 2021 season in that same building Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys. It will have been 213 days between Super Bowl LV and the new year when Tampa Bay-Dallas kicks off Week 1. The Athletic is here to provide all the information you need to know for Week 1 of the NFL season.
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All times Eastern. Expert picks will be updated on Wednesday. Odds current as of 10 a.m. Tuesday morning. Click here for live odds.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8:20 p.m. Thursday on NBC
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
The defending champions have the league’s second-shortest odds to win Super Bowl LVI and are the heavyweight preseason pick in the NFC at 3-1. As you might expect, they’re also favored in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites. Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay couldn’t have gone much better. His 40 passing touchdowns were the most he’d thrown since 2007. Brady’s 22 touchdowns to four interceptions over the regular season’s final month and playoffs propelled the Buccaneers from 7-5 to a dominant Super Bowl victory. He just turned 44, but Father Time doesn’t seem to be slowing him down just yet. Oddsmakers give Brady the fourth-shortest odds to win MVP.
Dallas is a bit of a wild card in 2021. The Cowboys rallied back from 2-7 to have a shot at the NFC East in Week 17 despite losing Dak Prescott after just five games. Prescott returns to the field with the fourth-shortest MVP odds and the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. There’s no denying what Dallas’ offense is capable of at full strength after averaging 32.6 points per game between Weeks 1-5. The Cowboys’ season rides on their defensive improvements. That unit was bottom five in scoring, giving up 29.6 points per game. Mike Nolan was fired as defensive coordinator after one season, replaced by Dan Quinn. First-round pick Micah Parsons is the preseason favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Cowboys were just 5-11 against the spread in 2020, though they did manage a 9-7 record when it came to exceeding point totals. Scoring 52 total points between Prescott and Brady seems manageable.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta and Philadelphia had two of the NFL’s five worst records last year as both franchises made coaching changes in the offseason. After serving as offensive coordinators for two of the NFL’s top 10 scoring teams a year ago, Arthur Smith and Nick Sirianni are first-time head coaches. Smith’s Falcons are 3.5-point favorites at home. Atlanta revamped its offense for Matt Ryan with No. 4 overall pick Kyle Pitts and running back Mike Davis, who topped 1,000 scrimmage yards last season. At the same time, Philadelphia drafted 2020 Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith to pair with Jalen Hurts. Neither team was great against the spread in 2020, and both were better against the under, making this game a bit of a toss-up.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
In Week 13 last year, these two met when Buffalo held Pittsburgh to 224 total yards and won 26-15. They would’ve met again in the Divisional Round had Pittsburgh not dropped its playoff opener, so a 2021 rematch will have to make do. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points in Week 1 and comes into the year projected for 11 wins, the third-most behind Tampa Bay and Kansas City.
Josh Allen took the next step in his third NFL season, leading the Bills to 13 wins and an AFC Championship Game appearance. Allen threw for 37 touchdowns and ran for another eight while his completion percentage skyrocketed almost 11 percentage points to 69.2. Some of that had to do with the emergence of Stefon Diggs, who led the league with 127 catches and 1,535 receiving yards. Those two are back after the Bills had the No. 2 offense in football and the NFL’s best record against the spread at 11-5, covering each of their final eight regular-season games.
Pittsburgh started 11-0 before it dropped four of five to close out the year. Oddsmakers project that skid will continue into 2021 as the Steelers have the third-best odds to win the AFC North and their preseason win total was set at 8.5. Despite the bulk of a defense back that ranked third in yards and points allowed, Pittsburgh’s season could come down to how well Ben Roethlisberger plays at 39 years old. He looked healthy in 2020, but the Steelers lost four starters on the offensive line and drafted running back Najee Harris 24th overall in April. This might be Pittsburgh’s last chance to compete with Roethlisberger, and Buffalo is not an easy way to start things off.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota has been pretty consistent at being inconsistent in its first six years under Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have never made or missed the playoffs in consecutive years, trading off seven or eight-win seasons with double-digit victories. After going 7-9 in 2020, Minnesota’s trend would lead you to believe a season of 10-plus wins could be in the works. If history repeats itself, the over is looking good on Minnesota’s win projection of nine games. The Vikings are 3-point road favorites in Week 1 and can start on the right foot with a win against the Bengals.
Cincinnati gets Joe Burrow back after a knee injury derailed his Rookie of the Year campaign. The Bengals only won four games last year but were much better against the spread at 9-7. A healthy Burrow and an improved receiving corps could help Cincinnati improve its overall record, but to do that, it can’t finish 29th in points per game again. There’s also the run defense that allowed the fourth-most yards. And in case you’ve forgotten, Dalvin Cook still plays for Minnesota. The Bengals getting three points at home is favorable, but make sure to check out the point total as well. Minnesota had the third-best record against the over.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
There’s a lot of buzz around San Francisco heading into the season. The 49ers were tabbed preseason co-favorites in the NFC West, projected for 10 wins and given the fourth-shortest odds to win the NFC. All without having a starting quarterback named. Jimmy Garropolo helped manage the 49ers to Super Bowl LIV, while Trey Lance was picked third overall in this year’s draft and is +750 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. After an injury-riddled season in the Bay, the 49ers kick off the new year as 7.5-point favorites against Detroit in Week 1.
This offseason, the Lions shook things up around the organization, hiring Dan Campbell as its next head coach and turning Matthew Stafford into Jared Goff and a pair of first-round picks. Goff had 20 passing touchdowns last season, the fewest he’d thrown since his rookie year. The change of scenery could help, but it won’t matter if Detroit’s defense ranks last in points and yards allowed again. The Lions had one of the best records against the over at 10-6, primarily because they gave up 32.4 points per game and were burned for 30 or more points in 10 of 16 games.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee has been to the playoffs in three of the past four years and comes into 2021 as the betting favorite to win the AFC South at -110. The Titans lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith but replaced him internally and will likely remain one of the league’s top units behind Derrick Henry, who won AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2020 and is the preseason favorite for the award this year. Henry has exceeded 300 carries in each of the past two seasons and became the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. Tennessee opens the year at home against Arizona as 3-point favorites.
It’s hard to tell which version of the Cardinals is going to show up in Week 1. It could be the group that started 6-3 and averaged 425 yards per game. Or the alternative option where Arizona lost five of seven to close the year, averaged 325 yards per game and scored 19 total points in Week 16 and 17 losses to miss the playoffs. The Cardinals should benefit from a Tennessee defense that ranked bottom-10 last year, but Arizona also has many new faces on that side of the ball.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
The pressure will be on Seattle and Indianapolis all season as both have some competition in their respective divisions. That said, this matchup between 2020 playoff teams makes for a fun Week 1 game. The Seahawks open as 2.5-point favorites on the road.
Seattle won 12 games in 2020 and secured the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Oddsmakers aren’t as high on a repeat of that, even with an extra game, pegging the Seahawks for 9.5 wins and the third-longest odds to win the NFC West. Seattle hasn’t finished worse than second in its division over the past nine years for what it’s worth. Russell Wilson is still the offensive leader of this team, though the Seahawks actually won more when he threw the ball less. Seattle’s pass defense could stand to improve after ranking 31st in opponent yards per game, but it was the No. 5 run defense that betrayed them come playoffs.
That’s the matchup or mismatch that could determine the outcome in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor became the focus of Indianapolis’ offense over the final month of 2020, averaging 21 carries and 140 yards per game at 6.67 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. The Colts’ backfield is still crowded, but it won’t matter if Seattle takes away the run. Indianapolis ranked top-10 in scoring on both sides of the ball last year, though it remains to be seen how Carson Wentz fits in at quarterback after a year of Philip Rivers.
Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team – 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles went 7-9 a year ago, winning four consecutive games to close the season with quarterback Justin Herbert being named Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Chargers parted ways with coach Anthony Lynn and brought in Brandon Staley to try and get over the hump after two years away from the postseason. Oddsmakers seem to like those changes as Los Angeles’ win total was set at 9.5, Staley is the preseason Coach of the Year favorite at 12-1, while Herbert has the ninth-shortest odds to win MVP. The Chargers open as 1-point favorites in Week 1 at Washington.
Washington won the NFC East at 7-9 a year ago and gave Tampa Bay a good run in the Wild Card. Much of its success can be attributed to a defense that ranked top-5 in yards and points allowed as Washington hit the under 11 times in 2020. Chase Young won Defensive Rookie of the Year after the No.2 overall pick recorded 7.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and four pass breakups. Oddsmakers a big jump from Young in his second year, giving him the fourth-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
New York and Carolina finished with two of the 10 worst records in the NFL last year, but the quarterback matchup alone makes this an interesting matchup. The Jets took Zach Wilson second overall in this year’s draft to replace Darnold, the former No. 3 overall pick who was traded to the Panthers after three shaky seasons in New York. Wilson has 9-1 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year but will have his hands’ full cleaning up the NFL’s worst offense from a year ago. As for Darnold, he gets a pair of 1,000-yard receivers to work with in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. And let’s not forget about the return of Christian McCaffrey after injuries limited him to three games in 2020. The Panthers open as 5-point home favorites against the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans– 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
The Jaguars’ 2020 season was forgettable after finishing 1-15 as a bottom-three team on both sides of the ball. Possibly the only silver lining of that mess was getting Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and preseason favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +350. Jacksonville’s turnaround won’t come overnight, quite the opposite, actually. But oddsmakers like the Jaguars to improve, setting their win total at 6.5 games and giving them +650 odds to win the AFC South. Jacksonville is a 3-point road favorite against Houston in Week 1, and there might not be a team with fewer expectations in 2021 than the Texans. Their projected win total is four games, which ranks last in the league. Tyrod Taylor was named starting quarterback for the opener, while Philip Lindsay will try to improve a run game that ranked 31st in yards. Houston’s run defense also gave up more yards than any other team last year, which could spell trouble against James Robinson.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland-Kansas City provided one of the more exciting playoff games of 2020. The Week 1 rematch will be a good early test for two of the AFC’s preseason favorites, with the Chiefs favored by six points at home. After winning a championship the year prior, Kansas City returned to the Super Bowl but became the latest victim of facing Tom Brady in a playoff game. KC’s win projection sits at 12.5 games going into the year, the most of any team, as it is also the betting favorite to earn home-field advantage in the 2021 playoffs, win the AFC as well as the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have nearly all of their primary contributors back and revamped the offensive line, which was arguably its weakest position group.
Cleveland came out of nowhere in 2020 to win 11 games, its best single-season showing since 1994. Kevin Stefanski understandably won Coach of the Year after snapping a 26-year playoff drought in Cleveland. He’s got the fourth-shortest odds to repeat, while Myles Garrett is a preseason co-favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at +550. The Browns were an average offensive and below average defense but went 4-3 against playoff teams during the regular season. It is worth noting that those losses came by an average of 22.7 points per game before heading to Kansas City.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots– 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Foxborough might look a bit like Tuscaloosa on Sunday when the Dolphins and Patriots meet. Miami starts former Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa entering his second season while New England starts rookie Mac Jones under center. The Patriots are 3-point favorites at home. Miami went 11-5 against the spread in 2020, but the under on a point total set at 43 is even more enticing with two strong defenses matching up.
Both teams are probably looking to forget about last season for different reasons. New England stumbled to a 7-9 record in its first year without Tom Brady. Bill Belichick’s defense held its ground, finishing seventh in points per game allowed. But the absence of No. 12 was evident as Jones was selected 15th overall this spring to try and bridge the gap. Miami went 10-6 behind the No. 6 scoring defense in football , though it wasn’t enough to make the playoffs in a very competitive AFC. Tagovailoa went 6-3 as the starter but averaged just 201.6 passing yards per game with 14 total touchdowns. Miami and New England’s win totals were both set at 9.5
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints in Jacksonville – 4:25 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Green Bay locked up the top spot in the NFC last season at 13-3 before coming up a game short of the Super Bowl. All eyes were then on Aaron Rodgers this offseason before the reigning MVP returned to the Packers. At 37, Rodgers has the second-shortest odds to repeat as MVP, while the Packers’ win projection sits at 10.5 games coming into the season. Green Bay is the heavy favorite in the NFC North at -165 and owns the third-shortest odds to make it out of the NFC in January. The Packers open the season as 4-point favorites against the Saints. Green Bay was 10-6 against the spread in 2020.
New Orleans is in unfamiliar territory to start the new year. The team is playing this game at Jacksonville’s TIAA Bank Field in the wake of Hurricane Ida. Jameis Winston is making his first career start for the Saints following Drew Brees’ retirement. Winston did spend the entirety of last season with the organization but will have Alvin Kamara back in addition to a top-five defense. Oddsmakers gave the Saints +325 odds to win the NFC South.
Denver Broncos at New York Giants – 4:25 p.m. Sunday on FOX
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Denver last reached the playoffs in 2015 when it won Super Bowl 50. The Broncos have had some defensive success since their offense has sputtered, finishing no better than 22nd in points per game over the past five seasons. Denver’s hoping the addition of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater can right the ship and get the organization back to the postseason. Oddsmakers don’t seem to think that’s in the plans just yet, projecting 8.5 wins for Denver while giving it 7-1 odds to win the AFC West. However, the Broncos are favored by 2.5 points on the road against the Giants in Week 1.
The Giants rebounded from a 1-7 start to nearly winning the NFC East in Week 17 last season. But it came up empty-handed as their playoff drought reached four years. Oddsmakers project seven wins in 2021, which would put New York at third in its division. This feels like something of a make-or-break season for quarterback Daniel Jones, who is just 8-18 as a starter in two years. The Giants’ defense took a huge step forward under Joe Judge, improving from 30th in points allowed to ninth. The offense ranked 31st in points per game and lost five games by a single possession. Unless New York figured out its offense in the offseason, a point total of 42.5 is very inviting for a team that hit the under 13 times last year.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams – 8:20 p.m. Sunday on NBC
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
The first Sunday Night Football game of the year features a pair of 2020 playoff teams in the Bears and Rams. Los Angeles is favored by 7.5 points, though its 4-12 record in 2020 against the over makes the point total an interesting play here.
Los Angeles reached the Divisional Round last year after going 10-6 in the regular season. It is projected to be right around there once again with its win total set at 10.5 games, except oddsmakers give Los Angeles the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at 12-1. A big reason for that is the addition of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is tied for the seventh-shortest MVP odds. Stafford won 74 games and led 38 game-winning drives over 12 seasons in Detroit, though he’s never won a playoff game. There’s also Aaron Donald leading the league’s No. 1 defense from a year ago. Donald’s won AP Defensive Player of the Year three times in four seasons and is a betting co-favorite at +550 to make it four wins in five years.
This offseason, Chicago made a quarterback change of its own, parting with former No. 2 overall pick Mitch Trubisky just two years removed from a 12-win season. Andy Dalton is expected to start in Week 1 while first-round pick Justin Fields awaits an opportunity. Oddsmakers are well, bearish, on the Bears, pegging them for 7.5 wins after three consecutive seasons with eight or more. The lack of clarity at quarterback plays a part in that, but so does a defense trending the wrong way. Chicago had the No. 1 scoring defense in 2018 before dropping to fourth in 2019 and falling to 14th last year.
Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders – 8:15 p.m. Monday on ESPN
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
The Monday Night Football doubleheader had been a Week 1 staple since 2006. But only one game will be played this year, and it’s between Baltimore and Las Vegas — a 2020 playoff team versus a team that probably should’ve been a playoff team as well. At the end of last season, the Ravens won five straight games to finish tied for second in the AFC North at 11-5. While their streak of two consecutive division titles ended, Lamar Jackson finally won a playoff game and got his team to the Divisional Round. Oddsmakers seem to think he can do more than that this season, giving the Ravens 14-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. They open the new year as a 4.5-point favorite at the Raiders.
Las Vegas went 8-8 a year ago, which was the franchise’s best finish since 2016. Except it was 6-3 at one point before closing the season with losses in five of its final seven games, including three by a combined eight points. A defense that ranked 30th in points allowed did the Raiders no favors, but Derek Carr’s season splits tell a better story of the ups and downs. He threw 16 touchdowns to two interceptions and completed over 69 percent of his passes during the 6-3 start. Over the 2-5 finish, that line dropped to 11 scores, seven interceptions and 65 percent completion. Oddsmakers must not have high hopes for Carr in 2021 as they expect the Raiders to win seven games.
(Photo of Tom Brady: Jamie Squire / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
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