Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday when the undefeated Carolina Panthers visit the Houston Texans.
The Panthers are 2-0 after shutting down the Saints 26-7 last week. The Texans, meanwhile, are 1-1 coming off a 31-21 loss to the Browns and will be without their starting quarterback.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (7-5-1, 2-4 last week), Doug Kezirian (4-4-2, 2-4), Tyler Fulghum (2-6, 2-4) and Anita Marks (51-26, 25-9), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (4-3-1, 1-1-1), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 9-10 (5-6) and Aaron Schatz (8-3, 3-1) of Football Outsiders have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Carolina Panthers (-8, 43) at Houston Texans
Fortenbaugh: The Carolina defense has yet to gain any national notoriety, but don't let that dissuade you from the fact that this unit is legit. Through two games, the Panthers currently rank first in the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.7), opponent third-down conversions (25%) and scoring defense (10.5 PPG). Sure, one of those performances came against Zach Wilson and the Jets, but the other came against a New Orleans offense that shredded the Packers in Week 1. I see Houston struggling to move the football down the field with consistency in this one.
Pick: Under 43
Schatz: Texans rookie QB Davis Mills had a 10.1 QBR last week. 10.1! That is not good. Now he has his first NFL start against the hottest defense in the league. Carolina currently has -52.0% defensive DVOA (Buffalo is the only other defense better than -25%). Are the Panthers this good in the long run? Probably not; we can't base everything on a two-game sample. Are they better than last year, when they ranked 24th on defense? Probably a lot better. Will they look great again this week? Did I mention Davis Mills had a QBR of 10.1?
Pick: Panthers -8
Fulghum: Sure, Sam Darnold is looking much more consistent after escaping the clutches of Adam Gase and finding solace in the arms of Joe Brady, but don't sleep on what Carolina's defense has done to help fuel the Panthers' 2-0 start. With Tyrod Taylor out and Mills getting the start for Houston, Phil Snow's defense should feast on a completely overmatched Texans offense. The Panthers are allowing just 10.5 PPG so far this season.
Pick: Texans under 1.5 TDs (+125)
Marks: Mills gets the start with Taylor out, which is not good news for the Texans offense. Mills struggled in the preseason (four INTs) and completed just 44% of his passes with an interception in relief of Taylor last week. Houston will also be without WRs Danny Amendola (hamstring) and Nico Collins (shoulder), leaving Brandin Cooks as the only real receiving playmaker (expect Cooks to be heavily targeted).
The Texans' rushing defense was the worst in the league last season and this year is allowing 5.4 YPC. I expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey on Thursday night as this game has the potential to get out of control early.
Pick: Panthers -2 in 6-point teaser with Cardinals -1, McCaffrey over 84.5 rushing yards (-115), Cooks over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Walder: Especially after this line moved to 8, this has become a huge disagreement between the market and FPI -- which would set the line at 4 if it had to play sportsbook for the day. Carolina has played the easiest schedule in the league thus far -- note that both their games were home -- and Houston honestly hasn't been that bad (seventh and 17th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively). The downgrade to Mills from Taylor is minor, in FPI's mind, despite Taylor playing well this year because our prior on the journeyman QB was so low going into the season.
But my favorite bets here are McCaffrey props. Running backs receptions occur on 19% of pass play snaps against Cover-2, as opposed 13% on average overall. And guess which team plays far more Cover-2 than anyone? The Houston Texans, who run it 56% of the time (next highest is Seattle at 42%). McCaffrey's receptions line is 5.5 -- the same as it was in Weeks 1 and 2 (with some shift in vig, though), so I'm on the over there and on his receiving yards.
Picks: Texans +8, McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions (-105), McCaffrey over 47.5 receiving yards (-115).
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