Week 2 NFL Previews
Saints at Panthers
| Saints Odds | -3 (-115) |
| Panthers Odds | +3 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -180 / +155 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
This is an under game for me.
The Saints will be without seven offensive coaches due to COVID-19 protocols. And while the defense is banged up and will be without defensive end Marcus Davenport (shoulder) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (elbow), as well as potentially cornerback Marshon Lattimore (questionable, hand), they’re a well-coached defense that is currently No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA after finishing last season second.
Saints divisional road unders are 29-13 with Sean Payton at the helm.
The Saints are also facing Sam Darnold, who couldn’t even beat the talent-starved Jets defense’s halftime adjustments last week. The Panthers offense mustered just three points and 109 yards after halftime against the Jets, averaging just 3.5 yards per play.
The spread is a stay-away for me. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite. Sam Darnold is Sam Darnold. The former Jet is 15-23-1 ATS in his career, including 12-17-1 as an underdog).
Pick: Under 44.5 (to 44) at BetMGM
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Christian McCaffrey is the highest projected player on the slate. He touched the ball 30 times in Week 1, which effectively gives him a 20-point floor without even scoring a TD.
Alvin Kamara is cash-game viable if you’re trying to save some salary. His 20 carries in Week 1 was his second-highest total among 61 career games.
A Jameis Winston-Marquez Callaway stack is in play in tournaments. Callaway ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks last week while no other Saint receiver topped 60%. He now faces a Panthers defense that allowed 5-97-2 to Jets No. 1 receiver Corey Davis last week.
It’s hard to get excited about the Saints’ other receivers, even though all outperformed Callaway in his dud against Jaire Alexander last week. Adam Trautman ran a route on 78% of dropbacks but has been targeted on just 21-of-164 career routes (12.8%). Deonte Harris ran only 58% of the routes and Juwan Johnson, despite his two TDs, was on the field for only 38% of Winston’s dropbacks.
D.J. Moore is also squarely in the GPP conversation, especially with Lattimore banged up. Moore’s career statlines against the Saints: 5-91-0, 4-93-2, 6-126-2, 4-81-0, 3-12-1. I’m not stacking him with Darnold, though.
The Saints will be among the handful of defenses I use in DFS. In 39 career starts, Darnold has 39 picks and 21 fumbles and as mentioned, the Saints have been a top-two DVOA defense since the start of last season. I’m hoping their injuries lower their ownership a bit but given the unpredictability of the position, I don’t concern myself with ownership as much — I’m just trying to nail the few defenses each week that reach double-digit points.
- Cash-viable plays: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara
- GPP Plays: D.J. Moore, Jameis Winston, Marquez Callaway, Saints DST
Texans at Browns
| Texans Odds | +13.5 (-110) |
| Browns Odds | -13.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +500 / -720 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
This is another under spot for me.
The Browns are down receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (knee), while left tackle Jedrick Wills (ankle) didn’t practice all week.
Unlike last week against the explosive Chiefs, Kevin Stefanski doesn’t need to dial up an aggressive game plan to beat the Tyrod Taylor-led Texans. The Browns ranked 25th in situation-neutral pace in Week 1, according to Football Outsiders. And Lovie Smith’s defense played coverage against Trevor Lawrence last week, blitzing just 11.5% of the time, fifth-lowest.
These two teams played a 10-7 game last season in the wind (though it should have been 17-7 if Nick Chubb doesn’t purposely step out of bounds). I see another low-scoring affair coming despite both teams going over their respective totals in Week 1.
Pick: Under 48 (to 47) at FanDuel
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Nick Chubb is in a smash spot.
In five games as a home favorite last season, Chubb averaged 19.2 touches, 117.8 total yards and 1.2 TDs. At $4,200, the Browns defense is the top value on FanDuel.
Because Houston is likely to play coverage with two safeties deep, Donovan Peoples-Jones is nothing more than a dart throw, but he’s still a cheap source of routes after running a pattern on 84% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks last week.
Jarvis Landry is in play, as well, though he’s not a priority for me given that I expect Cleveland to go run-heavy. Still, Landry could see Desmond King Jr. in the slot, who allowed 7-of-8 passes in his coverage to be caught last week, albeit for 40 scoreless yards. It would have been 8-of-8 if not for a D.J. Chark drop. I’d only play Landry in full-PPR.
There’s obviously a huge downgrade in talent from Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill to Tyrod Taylor-Brandin Cooks, but the latter stack is in play in game stacks with Chubb for tourneys after Cleveland gave up 11-197-1 to Hill on 15 targets while Cooks posted a 5-132-0 line on 7 targets against Jacksonville.
Even though Mark Ingram had a big game last week, I’m fading the Texans running game, as four backs (Ingram, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead) all played double-digit snaps. As a double-digit dog, targeting this backfield is a recipe for disaster.
- Cash-viable plays: Browns DST
- GPP Plays: Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Brandin Cooks
Bengals at Bears
| Bengals Odds | +2.5 (-105) |
| Bears Odds | -2.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +130/ -150 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
I entered the season bearish on the Bears, and nothing changed after Week 1.
I made the Bengals my moneyline dog pick of the week on the Action Network Podcast this week. This is a toss-up game for which the Bengals have the better quarterback, and though I’m not a fan of Zac Taylor, I don’t expect him to be out-coached too badly by Matt Nagy.
Pick: Bengals +115 at DraftKings (to +110)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
The Rams corralled Allen Robinson last week, not so much with Jalen Ramsey, but with their two-deep shell that forced Andy Dalton to dink and dunk. Robinson racked up double-digit targets last week but averaged just 5.8 yards per catch and 4.3 yards of target depth last week.
The Bengals play more single-high looks and allowed the fourth-most yards (250) and fifth-most catches (22) to wide receivers last week (albeit with an assist from the contest going to overtime), which puts Robinson into a prime bounce-back spot and cash-game status on DraftKings, where he is just $6,200.
Ja’Marr Chase is also an easy cash play at $5,000 on DraftKings. Chase ran a route on 94% of dropbacks and racked up 101 receiving yards on 114 air yards in his debut. The Bears scheme will keep two safeties back and force Chase to work more in the intermediate and underneath areas, but his mix of talent and usage is too good to fade, especially against a Bears defense that gave up a touchdown to each of the Rams top three receivers last week.
Darnell Mooney (questionable, back) is a perfect GPP play at $4,200 and $5,500 on FanDuel. The red “Q” next to his name will scare many entrants away despite the fact he practiced in full. The second-year breakout candidate was on the field for every offensive snap in Week 1.
Tyler Boyd is another strong GPP play, particularly on the full-PPR DraftKings at $4,700. The Bears trotted out Marqui Christian at slot corner last week, and he proceeded to get roasted for a team-high 5 catches, 85 yards and two TDs, with 4-83-1 coming by way of Cooper Kupp, who finished 7-108-1 on the day. This week Boyd will either match up with Christian, or some dude Christian somehow beat out.
Especially with Ezekiel Elliott, Najee Harris and Chris Carson in the same price range, this is a fade spot for David Montgomery.
The Rams practically begged Montgomery to run last week, but the Bengals held up surprisingly well against Dalvin Cook, limiting him to 61 yard on 20 carries and finishing second in run-defense DVOA on the week. Cook did have a high-volume receiving game (6-43-0), but Montgomery split pass-game snaps evenly with Damien Williams in Week 1.
The Rams’ run game was mostly held in check until the four-minute drill, so I’m not targeting Joe Mixon this week, either.
- Cash-viable plays: Allen Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase
- GPP Plays: Darnell Mooney, Tyler Boyd
Raiders at Steelers
| Raiders Odds | +6 (-110) |
| Steelers Odds | -6 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +235 /-300 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Betting Pick
After a career-low 7.6 aDOT last season, Ben Roethlisberger started the year off by averaging a 6.2 aDOT in Week 1.
Gus Bradley’s Raiders defense ended up 10th in pass-defense DVOA in Week 1, with Vegas getting eight pressures and three sacks despite blitzing only 7.7% of the time, tied for second-lowest. This sets up for another dink-and-dunk affair for the Steelers offense.
On the other side, the Steelers defense held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 16 points last week while blitzing a league-low 1.8% of the time. This is the exact opposite of a Ravens defense that blitzed on 34.4% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks, a tactic that ultimately cost them the game when they sent the house in overtime and allowed Raiders fourth-string receiver Zay Jones to easily run past their best corner, Marlon Humphrey, right into the end zone for a 31-yard TD. The Raiders with be without starting right tackle Denzelle Goode (ACL), starting left guard Richie Incognito (calf) and starting running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle).
Pick: Under 47 at PointsBet (to 46)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Najee Harris played 100% of the snaps in Week 1 and is thus cash-game viable despite the underwhelming performance against the Bills (16-45-0 rushing and 1-4-0 receiving).
Baltimore’s running game is leaps and bounds better than Pittsburgh’s thanks to the former’s offensive line, but it’s still noteworthy that Vegas allowed 142 yards and two TDs on 26 touches to Baltimore’s makeshift running back group. There are still enough questions about the Steelers offensive line, however, for me to prefer Ezekiel Elliott over Harris in cash games on DraftKings for $100 less.
Whereas last week set up well for slot receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, who led all Steelers wideouts with 52 yards, this matchup sets up better for Dionate Johnson and Chase Claypool on the outside after the Raiders got hit up for 10-165-1 on 14 targets by Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins last week.
Kenyan Drake is a season-long RB2 who is viable in GPPs. In Week 1, a banged up Josh Jacobs played 45-of-86 snaps (52.3%) while Drake played the other 41 (47.7%). The fact that no other halfback got into the game despite it going to overtime and the Raiders piling up 86 snaps tells me Drake has a high ceiling, usage-wise, despite how much Gruden talks up Peyton Barber.
Gruden is understandably still punch-drunk on practice-squad-caliber talent after Zay Jones caught the winning score on Monday Night, so it’s not entirely out of the question that he plays the practice-squad-caliber Barber more than he should, but Drake is a good enough mix of volume upside and price to sprinkle in in large-field GPPs.
The Steelers’ ability to wreak havoc on Buffalo’s offense without even blitzing puts them in a good spot to pay off as a cash-game play on DraftKings at $3,000. They’re larger favorites (-6.5) than the similarly priced Cardinals ($2,900, -3.5) and Saints ($3,100, -3.5).
The Steelers finished No. 1 in DVOA versus tight ends last season. This is a week to let others pay up for Darren Waller.
- Cash-viable plays: Najee Harris, Steelers DST
- GPP Plays: Kenyan Drake, Dionate Johnson, Chase Claypool
Bills at Dolphins
| Bills Odds | -3.5 (-105) |
| Dolphins Odds | +3.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -180 / +155 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
The Bills looked out of sorts on offense against Pittsburgh, which will happen: Buffalo hasn’t scored 20 points on offense in the last three meetings (the Bills’ defense got a pick-six of Ben Roehtlisberger last season to get them to 26).
This game is hard to handicap, though, because the Bills lit up the Dolphins for 87 total points last season in their two matchups. Will the Bills get back to more 11 personnel and activate Zack Moss to give them more options in the interior run game? Is Tua Tagovailoa a markedly different quarterback with Jaylen Waddle but still no Will Fuller (out, personal)? J.C. Jackson certainly doesn’t think so.
Pick: Pass
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Jaylen Waddle ran a route on 93% of the dropbacks in his first game as a pro, and should continue to be a starter in two-wide sets as long as Will Fuller is out.
Waddle ran 75% of his routes from the slot last week and has the best matchup in the Bills secondary against slot corner Taron Johnson, who is not as talented as Tre’Davious White. Buffalo’s other perimeter corner, Levi Wallace, was targeted 10 times last week but allowed only 35 yards.
Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders ran a route on 98% and 93% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Allen averaged 320.5 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game against Miami last season and only played one half in the second game, so Beasley and Sanders have to be in stack consideration along with Stefon Diggs.
Beasley has the best matchup in the slot, as he can avoid Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside.
I thought Devin Singletary would be strong play early in the week, but he’s shaping up as more of a dart throw because of speculation that Moss will be active this week. Singletary has been the better back throughout camp, but head coach Sean McDermott said a hamstring issue contributed to Moss’s inactive status last week, and sportsbooks currently have Singletary’s carry over/under prop bet at just 8.5.
Myles Gaskin saw only 14 of 24 backfield touches last week, which is not enough for me to target him in GPPs.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Jaylen Waddle
Rams at Colts
| Rams Odds | -3.5 (-110) |
| Colts Odds | +3.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -195/+165 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
The spread is a pass for me. The Colts are in a good buy-low spot after being ill-prepared to face Seattle last week due to a combination of injuries and COVID, but Carson Wentz is just 14-26 ATS since the start of 2018. I’m not confident that he won’t give away the game by playing impatiently and riskily against the Rams’ two-deep coverage shells.
And I’m also not convinced the Colts defense can stop the Rams passing game. Given the Rams will invite the run and the Colts likely won’t be efficient through the air, if I had to make one pick on this game, it would be the under, but it’s nothing more than a lean.
Pick: Pass
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Tyler Higbee is my top cash game play at TE after playing every snap and running a route on 93% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks. Van Jefferson (23) ran more routes than Robert Woods (18) last week, even though Woods out-snapped Jefferson, 77% to 69%. Jefferson is worth a GPP dart throw at nearly min-price.
Darrell Henderson is also cash-viable after seeing 94% of the snaps in Week 1. The Colts allowed 135 yards on 23 touches to Seahawks backs last week.
Cooper Kupp also played on 100% of the snaps, giving him massive GPP upside at a mid-range price tag.
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are in play in GPPs after the Rams invited the Bears to run last week. The Bears backfield combined for 158 yards and a TD on 27 touches.
I’m not touching the Wentz-led passing game, but I’d be willing to pay up for the Rams DST stacked with every-down back Henderson. Wentz has taken 53 sacks, thrown 15 picks, and fumbled 11 times in his last 15 starts dating back to the start of last season.
- Cash-viable plays: Darrell Henderson, Tyler HIgbee
- GPP Plays: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Rams DST, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines
49ers at Eagles
| 49ers Odds | -3 (-105) |
| Eagles Odds | +3 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -155 / +135 |
| Over/Under | 49 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
Under 49 is my favorite total bet of the week.
Both teams sit back in coverage rather than blitzing: The Eagles blitzed just 7.7% of the time in Week 1, tied for second-fewest, and the 49ers blitzed 9.5% of the time, fourth-fewest. This forces opposing offenses to dink and dunk their way down the field: The Eagles allowed an average depth of target of 5.0 and the 49ers allowed 5.4, both bottom-six rates. Both teams’ offensive metrics are skewed upward after facing two miserable defenses in the Lions and Falcons. The under is 28-12 at Lincoln Financial Field since 2016.
I also grabbed at Eagles at +3.5, though I’d pass at 3. Even when the 49ers defense was at it’s peak back in 2019, mobile QBs gave them the most troubles. Because the Eagles have stellar lines on both sides of the ball and a quarterback that can extend plays in Jalen Hurts, they should be a live dog all year. West-cost teams tend to do just fine traveling east these days, but the 49ers are dealing with injury issues and may not have their A-game this week.
Kyle Shanahan is also just 7-18-1 (28%) ATS as a favorite.
Picks: Eagles +3.5 (to +3.5) & Under 49 (to 47) at BetMGM
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Given that both defenses allowed sub-6-yard aDOTs and rarely blitzed while these teams combined for 73 points last week, I’m fading the hype on offenses and targeting the defenses. The two exceptions are Jalen Hurts, who has to be a weekly staple in at least one GPP lineup for everyone who multi-enters thanks to his rushing upside, and George Kittle, who torched Philly with 15 catches on 15 targets for 183 yards and a TD last season. I expect Jonathan Gannon to attempt to shut down Kittle, but he’s cheaper than Waller and will have a highly owned teammate (Mitchell) to leverage against. Deebo Samuel is a sell-high in DFS coming off the huge game, while Brandon Aiyuik is still in wait-and-see mode after last week’s goose-egg as he gets over an injury and out of the doghouse. Shanahan is playing Dante Pettis games with us with Aiyuk (the difference being Aiyuk is talented enough to redeem himself).
I initially thought Elijah Mitchell was going to end up in cash builds, but there are so many other ways to build without having to deal with Shenanigans. Mitchell played 35-of-51 (68.6%) non-Raheem Mostert snaps last week and faces a tough Eagles front but will likely see high ownership, so it was going to be cash or nothing for me with him this week.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, 49ers DST, Eagles DST
Broncos at Jaguars
| Broncos Odds | -6 (-110) |
| Jaguars Odds | +6 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -275/ +220 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
Not betting the Broncos -6 on the road. Not betting on Urban Meyer to cover just to win $100 for every $110.
The only bet I’d make here is Jags moneyline, but i’m not sure that even offers enough compensation to take the plunge with Meyer.
Pick: Pass
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Marvin Jones Jr. should see a lot of Patrick Surtain wirth Ronald Darby out, but the Broncos are set up to take away explosive plays. Even with Darby out, I’m hesitant to target Jones — or any Jags player, for that matter.
While this could be a prime Week 1 overreaction bounce-back spot for the Jags, I’ve been skeptical of Meyer all offseason, and a Week 1 drubbing does not make me want to invest hard-earned money. We haven’t seen the Jags go against a top-flight defense until now, so even though it seems like there’s nowhere to go but up, the range of outcomes also includes a scarier low than Trevor Lawrence throwing for 300-plus yards and three TDs.
Meyer tends to correct his gaffes eventually, so if I had to play someone on the Jags, it would be James Robinson at $5,500 on FanDuel ($6,400 on DraftKings is too much) after Robinson played more snaps than Carlos Hyde by saw 5 carries to Hyde’s 9 last week. It’s Broncos DST or bust here for me.
On the Denver side, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are both viable. The coaching staff wants to split their workload evenly, but this could be a high-volume backfield game for Denver after Jacksonville allowed Houston backs to pile up 41 touches for 144 yards and three TDs.
My favorite play in the Denver receiving corps is Tim Patrick, who had three 100-yard games and a multi-TD game last season. Patrick played over K.J. Hamler, who dropped a long TD. Cortland Sutton ran a route on only 80% of the dropbacks despite Jerry Jeudy going down, so I’m not sure how far along he truly is in his recovery, and Patrick has looked like Denver’s best receiver for quite some time now.
I also like Noah Fant as a price-point pivot off Higbee. Fant caught 6 passes for 62 yards on 8 targets last week while playing 77% of the snaps. He faces a Jags defense that sits 24th in DVOA versus tight ends after one week.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Broncos DST, James Robinson
Patriots at Jets
| Patriots Odds | -6 (-110) |
| Jets Odds | +6 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -255 / +205 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
The Jets ran only 60 plays and averaged a putrid 4.2 yards per play against Carolina in Week 1, so even though they’re coming home to New Jersey, I expect them to struggle even more against a Patriots defense that’s a step up in class. I also think Bill Belichick will play it smart knowing he doesn’t have to light up the scoreboard to beat the Jets. The Patriots are coming off a low-scoring, 17-16 loss to Miami in which they led for fewer than three minutes of total game time.
Tthe Jets suffered a massive blow to an offensive line that gave up six sacks last week, losing left tackle Mekhi Becton (knee) for 4-6 weeks.
Dating back to 2016, Patriots unders at 27-13 on the road, according to our Action Labs data:
Patriots-Jets has gone under in 4-of-5 matchups over that span.
Pick: Under 43 (to 41) at DraftKings
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
The Patriots allowed only eight combined receptions on 15 targets to Dolphins wide receivers, so I’m selling high on Corey Davis and not jumping the gun on Elijah Moore, especially with Jamison Crowder (COVID-19) and Keelan Cole (knee) returning. Barring a massive breakout from Zach Wilson against the Patriots (extremely unlikely against a Belichick defense), I’m off Jets receivers until Week 4 against the Titans, as the Broncos are up next in Week 3 for Gang Green.
Ty Johnson emerged as the leader of the committee backfield as I suspected, but this backfield is also a fade until if/when the team improves and the rotation tightens.
Wilson took six sacks last week and is sans Becton, so the Pats are a DST option if you want to pay up.
Damien Harris’ fumble and lack of receiving production takes him out of GPP consideration for me, even as a large favorite. Game script likely won’t favor throwing like it did last week for New England, when Mac Jones had 39 attempts as the Pats barely led, but I still like him as a low-cost option in large fields. This is absolutely a defense a young passer like Jones could break out for an efficient, 3-4 TD line against. I’d look to stack him with Nelson Agholor or Jakobi Meyers, who both ran a route on 95% of the dropbacks last week.
The Jets held Panthers slot receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. to fewer than 30 yards on six targets last week but gave up 7-137-1 combined on 11 targets to perimeter wideouts D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, so I would lean Agholor, who does more work outside than Meyers days.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Mac Jones, Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Pats DST
Vikings at Cardinals
| Vikings Odds | +4 (-110) |
| Cardinals Odds | -4 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +175/ -210 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
This is a spot to back the Vikings. Coming off a loss, Mike Zimmer-coached teams cover the spread twice as much as they don’t, going 30-15 ATS (67%) in his career.
As impressive as the Cardinals looked against Tennessee, some of their underlying metrics provide a reason for pause. Kyler Murray made some impressive plays, but overall, the Cardinals were only 19th in offensive success rate (47%) and 25th in passing success rate (41%), according to Sharp Football Stats.
And per our Action Labs data, Week 2 dog off loss +6 or less are 57-33-2 (63%) ATS since 2005.
Minnesota still ended up ranking an above-average 14th in overall DVOA last week. Ultimately, I think these are two average teams and that Arizona is getting an overreaction bump after mashing an unprepared Titans squad.
Pick: Vikings +3.5 at PointsBet (to +3)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
For the Cardinals, we know Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are always in play. I don’t love buying them at the top of the salary range at their respective positions, but the Vikings gave up 9.7 yards per attempt to Joe Burrow last week, so it’s entirely possible Murray and Hopkins are the top scorers of the day.
Rookie receiver Rondale Moore was targeted on 36% of his routes. A breakout is coming. He’s my favorite Cardinals’ GPP play.
A.J. Green ran a route on 93% of Murray’s dropbacks last week. I happen to think Green is better suited to be a Tide sponsor at this point in his career, but if you have any hope of him escaping the spin cycle, $3,700 on DraftKings is pretty cheap for a 90% snap player.
Christian Kirk notched two scores but ran a route on less than two-thirds of the dropbacks. With his salary bumping up, I’m fading him and hoping to jump back in if he overtakes Green in the near future.
The Vikings gave up 179 yards and a touchdown on 39 touches to Joe Mixon and Co. last week, so Chase Edmonds is worth a look at $4,900 on DraftKings. He played 58% of the snaps and probably would have played more had the game been close.
For the Vikings, Dalvin Cook is behind McCaffrey on Kamara at stud RB, and I’m not too keen on owning much of him after the Cardinals held Derrick Henry to 17-58-0 last week.
Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are all high-upside GPP options, with Jefferson being especially enticing after a price drop. I have my doubts about Arizona’s ability to hold up at corner with Robert Alford, Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson.
K.J. Osborn ran 88% of routes to Tyler Conklin’s 60% last week, so if Minnesota gets in a shootout, Osborn could pay off at near minimum price. He won the slot receiver job and posted a 7-76 line in Week 1.
I’m fading the Cardinals defense, as I’m betting the Vikings do everything in their power not to let Chandler Jones wreck the game (which is also why I’d rather Osborn than Conklin, who will likely have to chip).
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn
Falcons at Bucs
| Falcons Odds | +12.5 (-110) |
| Bucs Odds | -12.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +550/-800 |
| Over/Under | 52 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
This is a tease piece for me only. The Bucs should have the Falcons out-matched in the trenches on both sides. I would have considered the over if not for rain in the forecast.
Pick: Bucs tease from -12.5 down to -6.5 (to -12)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Against a Falcons defense that got picked apart by Jalen Hurts for 27-of-35 for 264 yards and three TDs, Tom Brady and every Bucs receiver is in play, but my favorite is buying low on Mike Evans. As for the run game, the potential rain, 12.5-point spread and last week’s benching make Ronald Jones II the ultimate contrarian play.
Antonio Brown will likely see high rostership, but I’m bullish on him long term. He and Chris Godwin are still too cheap to totally fade in stacks.
For the Falcons, I love buying low on Calvin Ridley after a down game. The Bucs have a great defense, but just lost cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow) and don’t necessarily limit passing yardage like they do rushing yardage (see: Dak Prescott’s 400-yard game last week). Kyle Pitts is also an option after drawing eight targets, but amassing only 31 yards in his debut, which has kept his salary in check.
The Bucs allowed just 47 yards to Cowboys backs last week and an NFL-low 60.0 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields last season. I want zero parts of Mike Davis and/or Cordarrelle Patterson.
The Bucs’ DST is in play after the Falcons looked listless last week, scoring only six points and gaining 260 yards of offense at home against the Eagles.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Tom Brady, Ronald Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Bucs DST, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts
Titans at Seahawks
| Titans Odds | +6.5 (-110) |
| Seahawks Odds | -6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +245/-310 |
| Over/Under | 54 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
I like buying low on the Titans here. The Titans should play better with another week of practice, and of the Seahawks’ 33 regular-season games played since the start of 2019, they’ve won only 12-of-33 (36.4%) by more than six points despite going 24-9 over that span.
Pick: Titans +6.5 at PointsBet (to +4.5)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
Chris Carson is a nice pivot off Ezekeil Elliott and Najee Harris in GPPs after handling 19-of-23 (82.6%) backfield touches for the Seahawks in Week 1. The Titans also allowed Cardinals backs to rip off 159 yards on 32 touches last week.
Rusell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are some of the highest-upside plays on the board. Rostering Metcalf for $7,000 on FanDuel feels like stealing — the Titans allowed 9.0 yards per attempt and four passing scores to Kyler Murray last week and ranked 30th in pass-defense DVOA in 2020.
I’ll gladly take Derrick Henry after a price drop, but I also love Ryan Tannehill at QB stacked with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Jones in particular is as cheap as ever and has a plus-matchup against Tre Flowers, who allowed all three passes into his coverage to be caught last week, with one going for a touchdown. Flowers allowed a 106.1 passer rating last season and hasn’t picked off a pass since 2018.
- Cash-viable plays: None
- GPP Plays: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, A.J. Brown
Cowboys at Chargers
| Cowboys Odds | +3 (-110) |
| Chargers Odds | -3 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +145/-165 |
| Over/Under | 55 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Betting Pick
I initially liked the Cowboys after they managed to stay with the Bucs (albeit with the help of some turnovers) in check, but then Demarcus Lawrence broke his foot, which changed things. Lawrence had a team-high five total pressures and posted a 91.4 PFF grade in Week 1. No other Cowboys defender had more than three pressures or a PFF grade better than 74.1. It doesn’t help that Randy Gregory (COVID-19) is also out.
The Chargers are also dealing with some injury issues, as tackle Bryan Bulaga (back) was placed on IR and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (shoulder) was ruled out. Defensive tackle Justin Jones (calf) is doubtful as well.
With all the uncertainty, these odds look about right, so I’ll pass. If absolutely forced to make a bet, I’d take the over.
Pick: Pass
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
DFS Plays
This will likely be the most targeted game of the week in GPPs. There are a lot of great values here, but I’d prefer to get most of my exposure in cash games to avoid the high rostership, which puts a dent in GPP-win expectation.
Dak Prescott has now thrown for 400-plus yards in his last four healthy games. With his defense taking more blows injury-wise, it’s not out of the question that streak extends to five. Michael Gallup’s injury raises the target floor and ceilings of Amari Cooper, fresh off a 13-139-2 game, and CeeDee Lamb, who went 7-104-1 on 15 targets in Week 1. Harris’ injury makes Lamb cash-viable, though I’d rather just go Prescott on DraftKings.
Cedrick Wilson will move into the Gallup role and is cash-viable at min price as long as Dak keeps throwing for hundreds of yards above average. I’m taking the savings with him this week on DraftKings, but playing Lamb on FanDuel and not dipping into Wilson’s pricing tier at WR in cash.
I’m expecting a bounce-back from Ezekiel Elliott this week — offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was right not to slam Elliott into the brick wall that is the Tampa Bay run defense. The Chargers, however, allowed 107 yards on 23 carries to Washington backs in Week 1 (4.7 yards per carry). Elliott also promisingly ran a route on 71% of Prescott’s dropbacks. He could have a monster game and is cash-viable at $6,200 on DraftKings.
Dalton Shcultz and Blake Jarwin split tight end duties last week, but both are low-cost dart throws so long as Dak has 400-plus yards squarely in his range of outcomes.
I’ll get my Justin Herbert exposure on FanDuel, where he is $400 cheaper than Prescott (as opposed to $100 cheaper on DraftKings). Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook were his top three targets last week and are all in play in GPPs, but I’d recommend going all or nothing with this game in GPPs rather than sprinkling players in various builds due to its likely popularity.
This is also a prime bounce-back spot for Austin Ekeler, who did not see a target on 25 routes last week. If you played DFS in the mid-to-late 2010s, you may remember new Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defenses famously concede catches to running backs.
Jalen Guyton ran a route on 73% of herbert’s dropbacks in Week 1, while rookie Josh Palmer was in on only 16% of the dropbacks. Palmer’s breakout is probably still a few weeks away. Guyton is a viable dart throw given this game’s shootout potential. He mostly runs empty wind sprints but has a career aDOT of 16.2 and would provide leverage over his more highly-rostered counterparts in this game.
- Cash-viable plays: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Justin Herbert
- GPP plays: Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, Austin Ekeler, Jalen Guyton, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook
Raybon’s Week 2 NFL DFS Plays
DraftKings Cash Lineup
- QB Dak Prescott $6,800 / Justin Herbert $6,700
- RB Christian McCaffrey $9,900
- RB Ezekiel Elliott $6,200/Najee Harris $6,300
- RB Darrell Henderson $5,700
- WR Allen Robinson $6,200
- WR Ja’Marr Chase $5,000
- WR Cedrick Wilson $3,100
- TE Tyler Higbee $4,100
- DST Pittsburgh Steelers $3,000
FanDuel Cash Lineup
- QB Justin Herbert $7,600
- RB Christian McCaffrey $10,000
- RB Darrell Henderson $6,400
- RB Najee Harris $6,100
- WR D.K. Metcalf $7,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb $6,800
- WR Julio Jones $6,300
- TE Tyler Higbee $5,600
- DST Cleveland Browns $4,200
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